RIM Earnings? Expect ‘More of the Same,’ Says Analyst

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Research In Motion is getting ready to announce its first earnings report under its new CEO, Thorsten Heins.

Speculation is centered on whether Heins has what it takes to drive RIM’s rebound, but analyst Mark McKechnie of ThinkEquity says it's doubtful.

“Thorsten is fantastic at execution. He came out of Siemens, and I get good feedback from the internal RIM troops. But we're looking for a bit more on the strategic side,” said McKechnie.

The company does have a new “Blackberry 10” software platform, but the ThinkEquity analyst thinks it is “more of the same.” In his view, only two moves could turn things around — either a plan to monetize RIM’s patent portfolio to salvage the assets they have, or a major shift to Google Android operating system models.

But McKechnie’s “hold” rating says he’s not betting on either outcome. The analyst has a $12 price target on RIM — about $1.60 below what the stock was trading on Thursday.

Ahead of the company’s quarterly call, McKechnie admits that there are plenty of market players that do not share his view.

“There’s a lot of folks pointing to the fact they’ve got a recurring revenue base, because not everybody is going to get off of the Blackberry. And their international business has been good,” he acknowledged.

McKechnie simply suggests that, in an Android world, RIM’s revenue base has an expiration date — and it’s looming.

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Mark McKechnie does not personally own shares of RIMM.