GM shares are up about 12 percent for the year, but generally have been in retreat since they reached $27.03, close to the year’s high, on April 3. Shares closed Tuesday at $23.31. Meanwhile, Ford shares, which closed Tuesday at $11.23, are up about 2 percent for the year.
“In (the first quarter), GM is better positioned than Ford in North America,” wrote UBS analyst Colin Langan, in a recent report. “GM’s production is up 10 percent vs. only 3 percent at Ford. Moreover, profitable full-size pickup production is up 20 percent year-over-year. Consequently, we expect GM will report a (first-quarter) beat.” Langhan is estimating 87 cents a share, and has a “buy” rating on the shares.
Langan expects global pre-tax income of $1.7 billion, down from $2 billion in the same quarter a year ago, as a result of declines in Europe and South America. However, “we expect North American profits to be up about $760 million year-over-year due to higher volume and mix as well as improved year-over-year pricing,” he wrote.
Credit Suisse analyst Chris Ceraso said that GM will benefit from increased production of its full-sized pickups in the quarter, with volume up about 20 percent from the same quarter a year earlier.
GM “has intentionally overstocked inventories of these units, with days’ supply jumping to 130 days by March-end,” above the normal inventory of about 80 days, in order to prepare for a changeover to the new T900 platform in the second and third quarters, Ceraso said in a recent report. He estimated first-quarter earnings of 84 cents a share.
“Just a strong GM truck production should be responsible for solid earnings across the (automotive supplier) group in (the first quarter), deep cuts in the platform in (the second quarter) are likely to result in earnings disappointments three months from now,” Ceraso warned.
“Yes, we know that the market should be well aware of GM’s truck cadence, but judging from (second-quarter) consensus estimates, perhaps not everyone has been paying attention,” he said.
Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s analyst Efraim Levy has a “strong buy” on GM and a price target of $34. This year, “global vehicle sales and production should rise, and GM’s revenues should advance 8 percent,” Levy wrote in a recent report. “Profit margins should benefit from the improved volume, partially offset by a possibly weaker sales mix and higher raw material costs,” as well as weaker European performance.
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