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Watch for Caterpillar Estimates to Come Down: Stephen Weiss

As it turns out, trader Stephen Weiss thinks a long position in CAT is for the dogs. He’s short.

That’s not to say Weiss doesn’t like Caterpillar as a company – he does. “It’s a very well-managed company,” he says.

Rather Weiss simply believes the stock is ahead of itself. Here's why.

Weiss has sifted through the transcripts from CAT’s last earnings call and he thinks some of the metrics the company is using in its forecasts are just way too optimistic.

“CAT’s forecasts are for 3% US GDP – the EU being flat – all of Europe being up 50 bps, China growing at 8.5% and Brazil up 4%,” he reveals.

“I believe every single one of those targets is going to be missed because the economy globally is slowing dramatically,” he says.

“Also their most profitable segment this past quarter was their resource business and that’s also coming down.”

All told he tells us, “I think the estimates come down and come down meaningfully.”

Trader Pete Najarian just shakes his head. He thinks technicals will prevail.

“The stock is just about at the 50-day of $97 and that been a level of strong support. At that level, I don’t know if I’d establish a short position."





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Trader disclosure: On May 4, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Pete Najarian is long AAPL; Pete Najarian is long C; Pete Najarian is long MS CALLS; Pete Najarian is long INTC; Pete Najarian is long INTC CALLS; Pete Najarian is long YHOO; Pete Najarian is long SBUX; Pete Najarian is long SBUX CALLS; Pete Najarian is long PEP; Anthony Scaramucci is long AAPL; Anthony Scaramucci is long BAC; Anthony Scaramucci is long GS; Anthony Scaramucci is long IBM; Anthony Scaramucci is long PEP: Steven Grasso is long ASTM; Steven Grasso is long AVAV; Steven Grasso is long BA; Steven Grasso is long D; Steven Grasso is long FRO; Steven Grasso is long LNG; Steven Grasso is long MHY; Steven Grasso is long NUAN; Steven Grasso is long MO; Steven Grasso is long PFE; Steven Grasso is long PRST; Steven Grasso is long S; Steven Grasso is long XLU; Steven Grasso is long ZAZA

For Patty Edwards
Patty Edwards is long for clients AAPL
Patty Edwards is long for clients BAC
Patty Edwards is long for clients C
Patty Edwards is long for clients GLD
Patty Edwards is long for clients INTC
Patty Edwards is long for clients JOY
Patty Edwards is long for clients COP
Patty Edwards is long for clients AMZN
Patty Edwards is long for clients PEP
Patty Edwards is long for clients DIS
Patty Edwards is long for clients CAT
Patty Edwards is long for clients SBUX
Patty Edwards is long for clients KMB
Patty Edwards is long for clients ED
Patty Edwards is long for clients EXC
Patty Edwards is long for clients KO
Patty Edwards is long for clients HNZ
Patty Edwards is long for clients PM
Patty Edwards is long for clients BMY
Patty Edwards is long for clients JNK
Patty Edwards is long PM

For Dennis Gartman
Nothing to disclose

Mark Mahaney
The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of YHOO
The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of AMZN

CNBC.com with wires.