Greece is not going to go along with the program. Of course, this was widely discussed yesterday, but everyone thought this meant there will be another negotiation for a third bailout.
Tsipras will not even discuss that option. Instead, he is calling for an international commission to investigate whether Greece's debt deal is even legal. He's also insisting that the two parties that support the bailout must go back on their promises as a condition for any negotiations to form a coalition.
You gotta love this guy. While everyone is wondering, will the “troika” (the European Central Bank/the International Monetary Fund/the European Union) offer to cut Greece some slack? Tsipras is essentially saying, Bailout 3? Take your bailout — any bailout — and shove it.
While this is amusing, it is also very dangerous. There is no deal that can be struck with someone adopting, and adhering, to these positions.
Will Tsipras move to the center? That is not clear, and it's likely he will not be successful forming a coalition.
Fortunately, a stalemate will not last long. To decide not to decide is a decision. The next troika review is in June. There is an additional 11.5 billion euros in budget cuts to cover gaps in the 2013 and 2014 budgets that have to be approved by the Parliament about that time.
There is no functioning Parliament, however, or if there is one soon, it will certainly not endorse additional cuts.
The odds that Greece will leave the euro has now risen significantly (never mind there is not even a mechanism to leave).
To see the rise of extreme left and right parties — one that is now being given a mandate — is a very dangerous road to head down. To call these groups fringe parties is no longer accurate. They are no longer fringe — they are now mainstream. These are not dealmakers, they are here to throw a wrench into the machine.
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