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Everything Says Risk Is Very High

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Ugh! Even if the U.S. markets are holding up better than Europe, it's still awful: the Dow ended down 10 out of 12 days. That is an ugly start to May.

Gold collapsing, crude collapsing, Treasurys keep rallying — everything is saying risk is very high. Greece has turned from a tail risk into something real.

Sure, there's still hope to stop the bleeding — but we need to change the headline on Greece! We need something like "austerity for a Greek bailout Part 3."

But that's why the bears are so ferocious: by now most traders believe there is no deal that can be made with Greece that they can keep. Even if they repudiate all debt, they would still need assistance.

And then there's contagion: people are going hunting for, who's next?

That's why we need another headline. A bigger headline. Like: ECB Backstops Everything. Or: Facebook Buys Greece, Sells Rhodes to Malta...

We've had a 3-year rally. People are used to buying the dips. But buying the dips has been a bad strategy this month: we are not getting any bounce, even at midday, when Europe closes. And now we're starting to see a buyer's strike — volume is light, the path of least resistant is still down.

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