How Low Can the Euro Go?


Greece isn't the only factor weighing on the euro.

Economic weakness overall and a political crisis in a deeply troubled country ought to be enough to weigh on the euro, and certainly Greece's problems are causing a significant downdraft. But Jens Nordvig, global head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura Securities, thinks there are even more problems ahead.

Nordvig thinks that if the leftists have a strong showing in Greece's next election, that could propel the euro down to 1.20 against the dollar - but even before that, he says, "we're starting to see evidence in our capital flow indicators that euro zone investors are exiting themselves and buying other currencies such as dollars."

That flow "is actually putting in motion this trending move lower, and we could actually get to 1.20 before the election if that capital flight continues," he told CNBC's Scott Wapner.

Nordvig also cautions that the capital flight means any upticks in the euro will be smaller than they have been in the past. So he thinks it makes sense to add to short euro positions if the currency moves up just to 1.26. He would set a stop at 1.2850, and look for a move to 1.20.

You can watch the discussion on the video.

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