Jon Najarian’s Apple Earnings Playbook

If you pay attention to only one earnings report a season, chances are it's this one.

Both pros and armchair investors love to hear from Apple .

But this quarter's report may be a little trickier than usual. That's because what they say about one gadget probably matters a little more.

“This time around the trade will be all about phone sales," says top trader Jon Najarian, co-founder In other words, phone sales are the metric that should move the needle.

Wall Street estimates Apple sold about 29 million iPhones, down from 35.1 million sold in the March quarter.

Najarian tells us he'll use 24 million is his proxy - allowing for some wiggle. “If sales come in about 24 million, I’m a buyer with both hands,” he says. "I'd then look for it to test $644."

"However, if sales slow to under 24 million iPhones of all types, then I'd be negative on AAPL, looking for it to trade to $550 again."

And even though Apple usually surprises to the upside, that second scenario remains very much in the cards this season.

For example, Tony Sacconaghi, analyst with Bernstein Research, sees a reasonable chance Apple will miss expectations, due to a lull in iPhone sales. And if that's the case, a sell-off is warranted because the iPhone accounts for nearly 50 percent for Apple's revenues.

Looking at the other gadgets, Wall Street expects sales of the new iPad to be 14 million to 15 million and Macs to be about 4 million. Apple is expected to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of $10.35 a share on revenue of $37.2 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie

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Trader disclosure: On July 23, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Stephanie Link is long AAPL; Stephanie Link is long JPM; Stephanie Link is long GE; Stephanie Link is long NKE; Stephanie Link is long ETN; Stephanie Link is long BRCM; Stephanie Link is long BA; Stephanie Link is long MCD; Stephanie Link is long WY; Stephanie Link is long EBAY; Steve Grasso is long ASTM; Steve Grasso is long BA; Steve Grasso is long D; Steve Grasso is long FRO; Steve Grasso is long LF; Steve Grasso is long LNG; Steve Grasso is long MHY; Steve Grasso is long MO; Steve Grasso is long PFE; Steve Grasso is long S; Steve Grasso is long VLO; Steve Grasso is long XLU; Josh Brown is long JPM; Josh Brown is long WFC; Josh Brown is long GDX; Josh Brown is long GLD; Josh Brown is long XLU; Josh Brown is long XLF; Josh Brown is long WMT; Josh Brown is long TGT; Josh Brown is long SBUX; Josh Brown is long MSFT; Josh Brown is long F; Jon Najarian is long AAPL CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long BHI CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long HAL CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long NXY CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long GOOG CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long INTC CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long JPM CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long CME; Jon Najarian is long CBOE; Jon Najarian is long CIGX; Jon Najarian is long GLUU; Jon Najarian is long GE

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