Byron Wien Remains Confident S&P Trades 1500 By Year’s End

Plenty of esteemed strategists are revising their S&P estimates lower but not the legendary Byron Wien.

In a live interview on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report Wien, who is Blackstone Advisory Partners Vice Chairman, tells us he sees every reason for the market to rally.

“I see us going to 1500,” he says. “We won’t go in a straight line – it might be a saw-tooth pattern – but I think we get there by year’s end.”

Wien says that his bullish outlook is due in part to thelatest economic data which shows modest improvement. “The US is getting better.” And he believes the market is growing more comfortable with the crisis in Europe.

In addition, he says the market is generally too bearish. “There’s a lot of negativity in the market. Hedge funds have been cautious,” he says. That in turn could trigger a chase for performance with only 11% of hedge funds currently returning more than the S&P.

However, of all the catalysts in the market, Wien seems to think the one that’s sorely misunderstood is the fiscal cliff. Although Congress won’t do anything before the election, he believes strongly they will act after. And he tells us the outcome of the election won’t matter.

“The fiscal cliff represents 3.8% of GDP – neither party will risk the political aftermath of throwing the economy into a recession."

In other words, the caution in the market currently generated by the looming fiscal cliff is probably unwarranted.

And once the fiscal cliff anxiety abates, Wien believes money will rotate out of bonds and into stocks as investors seek returns. He sees cyclicals and technology attracting capital. “They’ll do well enough,” he says. “And consumer staples (will also attract money) – the multiples and yields are attractive, there.”

All told, Wien believes on average “S&P earnings for the year will be $100 – and I think the market can sell at 15 times that – so that’s how I get to the target price of 1500.”


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Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie

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Trader disclosure: On August 21, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Josh Brown is long AAPL; Josh Brown is long DEM; Jon Najarian is long AAPL CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long BAC CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long JPM CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long WFC CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long GLD CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long SBUX CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long FB CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long EEM CALL SPREADS; Jon Najarian is long GLUU; Jon Najarian is long CME; Jon Najarian is long CBOE; Jon Najarian is long STSI; Stephen Weiss is long JPM; Stephen Weiss is long AAPL; Stephen Weiss is long TBT; Stephen Weiss is long WLT; Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Joe Terranova is long MCD; Joe Terranova is long SBUX; Joe Terranova is long WFM; Joe Terranova is long AAPL; Joe Terranova is long CSTR; Joe Terranova is long CHKP; Joe Terranova is long EMC; Joe Terranova is long NXPI; Joe Terranova is long SEPT. XLF $15 CALLS; Joe Terranova is long AAPL $640 PUTS

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