Busch: Euro Trade Update

What's Really Driving the Euro

Once again, the news from Europe is disturbing. This is your euro trade update.

Here's what I have on current positions:

Half short position on the euro against the dollar from 1.3080.

Full short position from 1.2980.

Full short position from 1.2830.

Our stop for all three (updated Tuesday) was at 1.2880 and our target was between 1.2650-1.2680.

Our big point was the 200-day moving average at 1.2830 and we have broken that decidedly today, due to the US election outcome (negative stocks) and the questions on Europe.

Today, the EURUSD is making new lows at 1.2740, but has bounced to 1.2770. At this point, we've had the market break the way I wanted, but I want to reduce the risk of this big position. Therefore, I want to cut the position in half at current levels (1.2755) and leave the stop-loss at 1.2880.

Overall, I'm trying to stay short until proven wrong.


Andrew B. Busch Director, Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, a recognized expert on the world financial markets and how these markets are impacted by political events, and a contributor to CNBC's Money in Motion Currency Trading. You can comment on his piece and reach him here and you can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/abusch .

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