CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming

February 1, 2023

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus 2022Q4
Median3.2
Low and highest median estimates to date0.6 to 4.1
Average3.2
Average (of those reporting today)3.1
# of Estimates5
# of Estimates received today3

How 2022Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

How 2022Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, pptMedianAverage
CPI (October)0.20.2
Retail sales (October), industrial production (October), business inventories (September)0.90.9
New residential construction (October)00
Existing-home sales (October)00
Advanced durable goods (October), new-home sales (October)0.10.1
Advanced international trade (October), GDP (2022Q3)-0.3-0.4
Vehicle sales (November)00
Factory orders (October)00
CPI (November)0.30.3
Industrial production (November), retail sales (November), business inventories (October)-0.5-0.4
Existing-home sales (November), GDP (2022Q3)0.10.1
Construction spending (November)0.10.1
International trade (November)0.21.0
Retail sales (December), industrial production (December), business inventories (November)-0.30.4
Existing-home sales (December)0.00.0
Advanced durable goods (December), GDP (2022Q4), new-home sales (December)-0.2-0.2
Construction spending (December)0.20.2

GDP forecasts, annualized % change

GDP forecasts, annualized % change 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2022 2023
Median2.9-0.40.41.12.10.8
Average2.4-0.40.21.02.00.9
# of Estimates666486

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics