Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: November 9, 2018

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
Median 3.6 3
Low and highest median estimates to date 3.1 to 3.6 N/A
Average 3.6 2.9
# of Estimates 8 6

How 2018Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Factory orders (Jun), Vehicle sales (Jul) -0.1 -0.1
International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) 0 -0.2
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Jul), Industrial production (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jul) 0 0
New-home sales (Jul) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jul) 0.2 0.2
Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) -0.1 -0.1
GDP (2018Q2-second estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0 0
Construction spending (Jul) 0 0
International trade (Jul), Vehicle sales (Aug) 0 0
Factory orders (Jul) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jul) 0 0
CPI (Aug) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) 0.1 0.2
Housing starts (Aug) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Aug) 0 0
New-home sales (Aug) 0 0
GDP (2018Q2-third estimate), Durable goods orders (Aug), Advance inventories and goods deficit (Aug) -0.1 -0.2
Personal income and spending (Aug) 0 0.1
Construction spending (Aug) 0 0
Vehicle sales (Sept) 0 0
Factory orders (Aug) 0 0
International trade (Aug) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Aug) 0 0
CPI (Sept) 0 0
Retail sales (Sept), Business inventories (Aug) -0.1 -0.1
Treasury budget (Sept), Industrial production (Sept) 0 0
Housing starts (Sept) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Sept) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Sept), Advance inventories and goods deficit (Sept) 0.1 0.1
GDP (2018Q3-advance) 0.2 0.2
Construction spending (Sept) 0.1 0.1
International trade (Sept) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Sept) 0 0

How 2018Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Oct), International trade (Sept), Employment (Oct) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Sept) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2018Q3
2018Q4
Median 3.6 3.0
Average 3.6 3.0
# of Estimates 6 9

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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