Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP
CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.
Updated: December 12, 2018
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
Consensus |
2018 Q3 |
2018 Q4 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | 3.1 to 3.7 | 2.8 to 3.0 |
| Average | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| # of Estimates | 9 | 10 |
How 2018Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
Median |
Average |
|
|---|---|---|
| Factory orders (Jun), Vehicle sales (Jul) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) | 0 | -0.2 |
| Wholesale trade (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Jul), Industrial production (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods orders (Jul) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GDP (2018Q2-second estimate) | 0 | 0 |
| Personal income and spending (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Construction spending (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Jul), Vehicle sales (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Housing starts (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2018Q2-third estimate), Durable goods orders (Aug), Advance inventories and goods deficit (Aug) | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Personal income and spending (Aug) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Construction spending (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Vehicle sales (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Sept), Business inventories (Aug) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Treasury budget (Sept), Industrial production (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods orders (Sept), Advance inventories and goods deficit (Sept) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| GDP (2018Q3-advance) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Construction spending (Sept) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| International trade (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Treasury budget (Oct), CPI (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Industrial production (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods (Oct), Existing-home sales (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2018Q3-second estimate), Advance economic indicators (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Personal income and spending (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Construction spending (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Vehicle sales (Nov) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Oct), factory orders (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
How 2018Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
Consensus |
Median |
Average |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (Oct), International trade (Sept), Employment (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Sept) | 0 | 0 |
| Treasury budget (Oct), CPI (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Industrial production (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods (Oct), Existing-home sales (Oct) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GDP (2018Q3-second estimate), Advance economic indicators (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Personal income and spending (Oct) | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Construction spending (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Vehicle sales (Nov) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Oct), factory orders (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Oct) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Nov) | 0 | 0 |
GDP Forecasts, annualized % change
Consensus |
2018Q3 |
2018Q4 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Average | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| # of Estimates | 9 | 9 |
Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics
