Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: February 15, 2019

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
 
2018 Q4
Median   2.4
Low and highest median estimates to date   2.4 to 3.0
Average   2.4
# of Estimates   11

How 2018Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Oct), International trade (Sept), Employment (Oct) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Sept) 0 0
Treasury budget (Oct), CPI (Oct) 0 0
Retail sales (Oct), Business inventories (Sept) -0.1 -0.1
Industrial production (Oct) 0 0
Housing starts (Oct) 0 0
Durable goods (Oct), Existing-home sales (Oct) -0.1 -0.1
GDP (2018Q3-second estimate), Advance economic indicators (Oct), New-home sales (Oct) -0.1 -0.1
Personal income and spending (Oct) 0.2 0.1
Construction spending (Oct) 0 0
Vehicle sales (Nov) 0 0
International trade (Oct), factory orders (Oct) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Oct) 0 0
CPI (Nov) 0 0
Treasury Budget (Nov), Retail sales (Nov), Industrial production (Nov), Business inventories (Oct) 0.2 0.2
Housing starts (Nov) 0 0
GDP (2018Q3-third estimate), Personal income and spending (Nov), Durable goods orders (Nov) 0 -0.1
Vehicle sales (Dec) 0 0
CPI (Nov) 0 0
Industrial production (Dec) 0 0
New-home sales (Nov) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Nov), Construction spending (Nov) 0 -0.1
Factory orders (Nov) -0.1 -0.1
International trade (Nov) 0.2 0.2
CPI (Jan) 0 0
Retail sales (Dec), Business inventories (Nov) -0.7 -0.7
Click to edit 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2018Q4
2019Q1
Median 2.7 2.0
Average 2.7 2.0
# of Estimates 9 8

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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