CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming
May 11, 2022
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | -1.4 | 2.7 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | -1.5 to 1.1 | 2.7 to 3.6 |
| Average | -0.7 | 2.7 |
| Average (of those reporting today) | -1.4 | 2.4 |
| # of Estimates | 6 | 4 |
| # of Estimates received today | 2 | 3 |
How 2022Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2022Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt | Median | Average |
|---|---|---|
| International Trade (January) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Housing starts (January) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2021Q4), New-home sales (January) | 0 | -0.1 |
| Vehicle sales (February), factory orders (January) | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| CPI (February) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (February), business inventories (January) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Housing starts (February), industrial production (February) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (February) | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced durable goods (February) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Vehicle sales (March), factory orders (February) | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| International Trade (February) | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| CPI (March) | 0 | -0.1 |
| Retail sales (March), business inventories (February) | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Housing starts (March) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (March) | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced international trade (March) | 0 | -0.1 |
| GDP (2022Q1) | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Personal income (March), real personal spending (March) | 0 | 0 |
| Construction spending (March) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Vehicle sales (April), factory orders (March) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| International trade (March) | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| CPI (April) | 0 | 0 |
How 2022Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2022Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt | Media | Average |
|---|---|---|
| International trade (March) | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| CPI (April) | 0 | 0 |
GDP forecasts, annualized % change
| GDP forecasts, annualized % change | 2022Q1 | 2022Q2 | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | -0.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Average | 0.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| # of Estimates | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics