CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming
February 1, 2023
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2022Q4 |
|---|---|
| Median | 3.2 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | 0.6 to 4.1 |
| Average | 3.2 |
| Average (of those reporting today) | 3.1 |
| # of Estimates | 5 |
| # of Estimates received today | 3 |
How 2022Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2022Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt | Median | Average |
| CPI (October) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Retail sales (October), industrial production (October), business inventories (September) | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| New residential construction (October) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (October) | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced durable goods (October), new-home sales (October) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Advanced international trade (October), GDP (2022Q3) | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Vehicle sales (November) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (October) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (November) | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Industrial production (November), retail sales (November), business inventories (October) | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Existing-home sales (November), GDP (2022Q3) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Construction spending (November) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| International trade (November) | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Retail sales (December), industrial production (December), business inventories (November) | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| Existing-home sales (December) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Advanced durable goods (December), GDP (2022Q4), new-home sales (December) | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Construction spending (December) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
GDP forecasts, annualized % change
| GDP forecasts, annualized % change | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2023Q2 | 2023Q3 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 2.9 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Average | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| # of Estimates | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics