CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.

March 1, 2021

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus 2020Q4 2021Q1
Median4.36.6
Low and highest median estimates to date3.8 to 11.14.5 to 7.1
Average4.36.4
Average (of those reporting today)4.47.5
# of Estimates98
# of Estimates received today45

How 2020Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

How 2020Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed annualized % change ppt Median Averag
Vehicle sales (October) factory orders (September) international trade (September)00.1
CPI (October)0.10.1
Retail sales (October) industrial production (October) business inventories (September)00.4
Housing starts (October)0.10.1
Existing-home sales (October)00
Advance durable goods (October) GDP (2020Q3) personal income & spending (October) new-home sales (October)0.52
Construction spending (October)00
Factory orders (October) International trade (October)0.10.1
CPI (November)0-0.2
Industrial production (November)00
Retail sales (November) business inventories (October)-0.5-0.4
Current account balance (2020Q3)00
Advance durable goods (November) personal income & spending (November) new-home sales (November)-0.3-0.4
Construction spending (November)00
Factory orders (November) Vehicle sales (December)00
International trade (November)-0.1-0.1
CPI (December)00
Retail sales (December) industrial production (December) business inventories (November)-0.8-0.8
Housing starts (December)00
Existing-home sales (December)00
Advance durable goods (December)-0.1-0.1
GDP (2020Q4) international trade (December) new-home sales (December)-1.1-0.9
Personal income & spending (December)00
Construction spending (December)0-0.2
International trade (December)00
CPI (January)00
Housing starts (January)00
Existing-home sales (January)00
New home sales (January)00
GDP (2020Q4) durable goods (January)00
Personal income & spending (January) International trade (January)00.1
Construction spending (January)00

How 2021Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

How 2021Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed annualized % change ppt Median Average
CPI (January)00
Housing starts (January)00
Existing-home sales (January)00
New home sales (January)00
GDP (2020Q4) durable goods (January)00.1
Personal income & spending (January) International trade (January)-0.3-0.4
Construction spending (January)0.20.5

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2020 2021
Median4.14.98.96.9-3.56.0
Average4.25.08.57.0-3.36.0
# of Estimates988888

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics