Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: July 16, 2019

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
 
2019Q2
Median   1.8
Low and highest median estimates to date   1.5 to 2.0
Average   1.9
# of Estimates   11

How 2019Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Apr), Factory orders (Mar) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) 0.1 0.2
International trade (Mar), Wholesale trade (Mar) -0.1 -0.1
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) -0.2 -0.2
Housing starts (Apr) 0 0
New-home sales (Apr) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Apr) -0.2 -0.2
GDP (2019Q1-second estimate), Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Apr) 0 0.1
Construction spending (Apr) 0.1 0
Vehicle sales (May), Factory orders (Apr) 0 0
International trade (Apr), Productivity (2019Q1) 0.2 0.1
Wholesale trade (Apr) 0 0
CPI (May) 0 0
Retail sales (May), Industrial production (May), Business inventories (April) 0 0.2
Housing starts (May) 0 0
Existing-home sales (May) 0 0
New-home sales (May) 0 0
Durable goods orders (May), advance goods deficit (May), advance inventories (May) -0.1 -0.2
Personal income and spending (May) 0 0
Construction spending (May) 0 0
International trade (May), Factory orders (May) -0.2 -0.2
CPI (Jun) 0 -0.1
Retail sales (Jun), Industrial production (Jun), Business inventories (May) 0.1 0.2

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2019Q2
2019Q3
Median 1.8 2.0
Average 1.8 2.1
# of Estimates 10 7

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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