CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.
March 1, 2021
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2020Q4 | 2021Q1 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | 4.3 | 6.6 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | 3.8 to 11.1 | 4.5 to 7.1 |
| Average | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| Average (of those reporting today) | 4.4 | 7.5 |
| # of Estimates | 9 | 8 |
| # of Estimates received today | 4 | 5 |
How 2020Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2020Q4 GDP tracking estimates have changed annualized % change ppt | Median | Averag |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (October) factory orders (September) international trade (September) | 0 | 0.1 |
| CPI (October) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Retail sales (October) industrial production (October) business inventories (September) | 0 | 0.4 |
| Housing starts (October) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Existing-home sales (October) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance durable goods (October) GDP (2020Q3) personal income & spending (October) new-home sales (October) | 0.5 | 2 |
| Construction spending (October) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (October) International trade (October) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| CPI (November) | 0 | -0.2 |
| Industrial production (November) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (November) business inventories (October) | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Current account balance (2020Q3) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance durable goods (November) personal income & spending (November) new-home sales (November) | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Construction spending (November) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (November) Vehicle sales (December) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (November) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| CPI (December) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (December) industrial production (December) business inventories (November) | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Housing starts (December) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (December) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance durable goods (December) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GDP (2020Q4) international trade (December) new-home sales (December) | -1.1 | -0.9 |
| Personal income & spending (December) | 0 | 0 |
| Construction spending (December) | 0 | -0.2 |
| International trade (December) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (January) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (January) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (January) | 0 | 0 |
| New home sales (January) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2020Q4) durable goods (January) | 0 | 0 |
| Personal income & spending (January) International trade (January) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Construction spending (January) | 0 | 0 |
How 2021Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2021Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed annualized % change ppt | Median | Average |
|---|---|---|
| CPI (January) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (January) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (January) | 0 | 0 |
| New home sales (January) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2020Q4) durable goods (January) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Personal income & spending (January) International trade (January) | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Construction spending (January) | 0.2 | 0.5 |
GDP Forecasts, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2020Q4 | 2021Q1 | 2021Q2 | 2021Q3 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 4.1 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 6.9 | -3.5 | 6.0 |
| Average | 4.2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.0 | -3.3 | 6.0 |
| # of Estimates | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics