CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming data.
August 4, 2020
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2020Q2 |
|---|---|
| Median | -32.9 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | -37.7 to -30 |
| Average | -33.3 |
| Average (of those reporting today) | -32.8 |
| # of Estimates | 10 |
| # of Estimates received today | 3 |
How 2020Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2020Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed annualized % change (ppt) | Median | Average | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (Apr), Factory orders (Mar) | 0 | 0.2 | ||
| International trade (Mar) | 0 | 0 | ||
| CPI (Apr) | -0.5 | -1.4 | ||
| Retail sales (Apr), industrial production (Apr), business inventories (Mar) | -2.2 | -3.7 | ||
| Housing starts (Apr) | 0 | 0.2 | ||
| New-home sales (Apr) | 0 | 0 | ||
| GDP (2020Q1 second estimate), Durable goods (Apr) | 0 | 0.2 | ||
| Personal income and spending (Apr) | 0.5 | -2 | ||
| Construction spending (Apr) | 0 | -0.4 | ||
| International trade (Apr) | 0 | 0 | ||
| CPI (May) | 0 | 0 | ||
| Housing starts (May) | 0 | 0 | ||
| Existing-home sales (May) | 0 | -0.1 | ||
| New-home sales (May) | 0 | 0 | ||
| International trade (May) Durable goods (May) GDP (2020Q1) | -0.6 | -0.8 | ||
| Personal income and spending (May) | 1.9 | 3 | ||
| Construction spending (May) | 0 | -0.1 | ||
| Wholesale trade (May) | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||
| PPI (June) | 0 | 0 | ||
| CPI (June) | 0 | 0 | ||
| Industrial production (June), Import prices (June) | 0 | 0 | ||
| Retail sales (Jun), Business inventories (May) | 0 | 0.1 | ||
| Existing-home sales (June) | 0 | -0.2 | ||
| Durable goods (Jun) | 0 | -0.7 | ||
| International trade (June) | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||
| Personal income and spending (Jun) | 0 | 0.1 | ||
| Construction spending (Jun) | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Factory orders (June) | 0 | 0 |
GDP Forecasts, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2020Q2 | 2020Q3 | 2020Q4 | 2021Q1 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | -32.9 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 6.9 | -5.4 | 5.3 |
| Average | -32.8 | 16.7 | 9.7 | 7.8 | -5.3 | 4.9 |
| # of Estimates | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics
