CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC calculate the new median quarterly GDP tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists and how much the new data changes it. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes with incoming
July 20, 2022
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
| Consensus | 2022Q2 |
|---|---|
| Median | 0.7 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | -1.6 to 1.5 |
| Average | 0.3 |
| Average (of those reporting today) | 0.2 |
| # of Estimates | 6 |
| # of Estimates received today | 5 |
How 2022Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
| How 2022Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt | Media | Average |
|---|---|---|
| International trade (March) | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| CPI (April) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (April), industrial production (April), business inventories (March) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (April) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (April) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP, second estimate (2022Q1) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (April), real personal spending (April), nominal personal income (April) | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Construction spending (April) | 0 | 0 |
| Vehicle sales (May), factory orders (April) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (April) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (May) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Retail sales (May), businesses inventories (April), new residential construction (May) | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Industrial production (May) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Existing-home sales (May) | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (May) | 0 | 0.1 |
| International trade (May) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| CPI (June) | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Retail sales (June), businesses inventories (May), industrial production (June), Import prices (June) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| New residential construction (June) | 0 | 0.4 |
| Existing-home sales (June) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| New-home sales (June) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Advanced international trade (June), advanced durable goods (June) | 0 | 0.2 |
GDP forecasts, annualized % change
| GDP forecasts, annualized % change | 2022Q2 | 2022Q3 | 2022Q4 | 2023Q1 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Average | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| # of Estimates | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics