Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP
CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.
Updated: September 19, 2017
GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change
Consensus |
2017 Q2 |
2017Q3 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Low and highest median estimates to date | 2.9 to 3.3 | 1.3 to 2.8 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| # of Estimates | 8 | 11 |
How 2017Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
Median |
Average |
|
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (Apr)) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Mar), Factory orders (Mar) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Wholesale trade (Mar) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Apr), Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) | 0 | 0.1 |
| New-home sales (Apr) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales (Apr) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| GDP (2017Q-second estimate), Durable goods (Apr) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Personal income and spending (Apr) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Construction spending (Apr) | -0.1 | 0 |
| Vehicle sales (May), International trade (Apr) | 0 | -0.2 |
| Factory orders (Apr) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Apr) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Retail sales (May), CPI (May), Business inventories (Apr) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Industrial production (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Housing starts (May) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Existing-home sales (May) | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods orders (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance goods deficit (May), Advance inventories (May) | 0 | 0.1 |
| GDP (2017Q1-third estimate) | 0 | 0.1 |
| Personal income and spending (May) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Construction spending (May), Vehicle sales (June), Factory orders (May) | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| International trade (May) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (May) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Jun), Retail sales (Jun), Industrial production (Jun), Business inventories (May) | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Housing starts (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| Existing-home sales | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| Durable goods (Jun), Advance inventories (Jun), Advance goods deficit (Jun) | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| GDP (2017Q2-advance) | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Construction spending (Jun) | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Factory orders (Jun) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| International trade (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Jun) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Housing starts (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Industrial production (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GDP (2017Q2-second estimate) | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Construction spending (Jul) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Vehicle sales (Aug), Factory orders (Jul) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| International trade (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Quarterly Services Survey (2017Q2-final) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) | -0.1 | -0.1 |
How 2017Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt
Click to edit |
Median |
Average |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle sales (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Factory orders (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Jun) | 0 | 0 |
| CPI (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Housing starts (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Industrial production (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| New-home sales (Jul), Existing-home sales (Jul), Durable goods (Jul) | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| GDP (2017Q2-second estimate) | 0 | 0 |
| Personal income and spending (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| Employment (Aug), Construction spending (Jul) | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Vehicle sales (Aug), Factory orders (Jul) | 0 | 0 |
| International trade (Jul) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Quarterly Services Survey (2017Q2-final) | 0 | 0 |
| Wholesale trade (Jul) | 0 | 0.1 |
| CPI (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
| Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Housing starts (Aug) | 0 | 0 |
GDP Forecasts, annualized % change
Consensus |
2017 Q2 |
2017Q3 |
|---|---|---|
| Median | 3 | 2.6 |
| Average | 3 | 2.5 |
| # of Estimates | 8 | 9 |
Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics
