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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the n

ew data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: May 16, 2018

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
Median 2.3 3.6
Low and highest median estimates to date 1.5 to 3.3 3.6 to 3.7
Average 2.3 3.6
# of Estimates 8 7

How 2018Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jan), Employment (Jan), Factory orders (Dec) 0 0
International trade (Dec) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Dec) 0 0
Retail sales (Jan), Consumer prices (Jan), Business inventories (Dec) -0.3 -0.4
Industrial production (Jan) 0 0
Housing starts (Jan) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jan) 0 0
New-home sales (Jan) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Jan), Advance inventories (Jan), Durable goods (Jan) -0.1 -0.1
GDP (2017Q4-second estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Jan), Construction spending (Jan) -0.2 0
Vehicle sales (Feb) 0 0
Factory orders (Jan) 0 0
International trade (Jan) 0 -0.1
Employment (Feb), Wholesale trade (Jan) 0 0
CPI (Feb) 0 0
Retail sales (Feb), Business inventories (Jan) -0.3 -0.3
Industrial production (Feb), Housing starts (Feb) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Feb) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Feb), New-home sales (Feb) 0 0.1
GDP (2017Q4-third estimate), Advance inventories, Advance goods deficit 0 0
Personal income and spending (Feb) 0.1 0.1
Construction spending (Feb) 0 0.1
Vehicle sales (Mar), Factory orders (Feb) 0 0.1
International trade (Feb) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Feb) 0 0
CPI (Mar) 0 0
Retail sales (Mar), Business inventories (Mar) 0 -0.1
Industrial production (Mar), Housing starts (Mar) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Mar) 0 0
New-home sales (Mar) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Mar), Advance inventories (Mar), Durable goods (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Construction spending (Mar) 0 0
International trade (Mar), Factory orders (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Wholesale trade (Mar), CPI (Apr) -0.1 -0.1
Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0

How 2018Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Wholesale trade (Mar), CPI (Apr) 0 0
Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0 0.1
Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2018Q1
2018Q2
Median 2.3 3.3
Average 2.3 3.4
# of Estimates 9 9

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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