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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: December 8, 2017

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
Median 3.4 2.5
Low and highest median estimates to date 3.3 to 3.5 2.0 to 3.2
Average 3.4 2.5
# of Estimates 5 6

How 2017Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jul) 0 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0 0
International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) 0.2 0.2
Housing starts (Jul) 0 0
Industrial production (Jul) 0 0
New-home sales (Jul), Existing-home sales (Jul), Durable goods (Jul) 0.2 0.1
Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) 0 0
GDP (2017Q2-second estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0 0
Employment (Aug), Construction spending (Jul) -0.1 -0.2
Vehicle sales (Aug), Factory orders (Jul) 0 0
International trade (Jul) 0.1 0.1
Quarterly Services Survey (2017Q2-final) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jul) 0 0.1
CPI (Aug) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) -0.6 -0.5
Housing starts (Aug) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Aug) 0 0
Durable goods (Aug) 0 0
GDP (2017Q2-third estimate), Advance goods deficit (Aug), Advance inventories (Aug) 0.4 0.4
Personal income and spending (Aug) 0 0
Construction spending (Aug) 0 0
Vehicle sales (Sep) 0 0.1
Wholesale trade (Aug) 0 -0.1
Retail sales (Sep), CPI (Sep), Business inventories (Aug) 0.2 0.2
Industrial production (Sep) 0 0
Housing starts (Sep) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Sep) 0 0
Durable goods (Sep), New-home sales (Sep) 0 0.1
Advance goods deficit (Sep), Advance inventories (Sep) 0 -0.1
GDP (2017Q3-advance) 0.2 0.2
Construction spending (Sep) 0.1 0.1
Vehicle sales (Oct) 0 0
Employment (Oct), International trade (Sep), Factory orders (Sep) 0.2 0.2
Wholesale trade (Sep) 0 0
Retail sales (Oct), CPI (Oct), Business inventories (Sep) 0 0
Industrial production (Oct) 0 0
Housing starts (Oct), Quarterly Services Survey (2017Q3-advance) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Oct) 0 0
Durable goods (Oct) 0 0
New-home sales (Oct) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Oct), Advance inventories (Oct) -0.1 -0.1
GDP (2017Q3-second estimate) 0.1 0
Personal income and spending (Oct) 0 0
Construction spending (Oct) 0.1 0.1
Vehicle sales (Nov), Factory orders (Oct) 0 0
International trade (Oct) 0 0
Quarterly Services Survey (2017Q3-final) 0 0.1
Employment (Nov), Wholesale trade (Oct) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
Median 3.4 2.4
Average 3.4 2.5
# of Estimates 5 5

Source: CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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