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Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: October 16, 2019

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2019Q3
 
Median 1.5  
Low and highest median estimates to date 1.5 to 2.7  
Average 1.6  
# of Estimates 12  

How 2019Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Jul), International trade (Jun), Factory orders (Jun) -0.1 -0.1
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Jul), industrial production (Jul), business inventories (Jun) 0.2 0.2
Existing-home sales (Jul) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jul) 0 0
GDP (2019Q2-second estimate), Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) 0.1 0.1
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0.1 0.1
Construction spending (Jul) 0 0
International trade (Jul) -0.1 -0.1
Wholesale trade (Jul) 0 0.1
CPI (Aug) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) 0.1 0.1
Industrial production (Aug), Housing starts (Aug) 0.1 0.1
Existing-home sales (Aug) 0 0
New-home sales (Aug) 0 0
GDP (2019Q2-third estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Aug), Durable goods orders (Aug) -0.2 -0.2
Construction spending (Aug) -0.1 -0.1
Factory orders (Aug) -0.1 -0.1
International trade (Aug) 0 0
CPI (Sep) 0 0
Retail sales (Sep), Business inventories (Aug) -0.1 -0.1

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2019Q3
2019Q4
Median 1.6 1.9
Average 1.6 1.9
# of Estimates 10 7

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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