Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: May 15, 2019

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2019Q1
2019Q2
Median 3.2 1.9
Low and highest median estimates to date 1.0 to 3.4 1.7 to 2.0
Average 3.2 1.8
# of Estimates 8 8

How 2019Q1 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Personal income and spending (Dec, Jan) 0 0
Vehichle sales (Feb), Construction spending (Dec) 0 0
International trade (Dec), Treasury Budget (Jan) 0 0.1
Retail sales (Jan), Business inventories (Dec) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jan), Construction spending (Jan) 0.1 0.1
Industrial production (Feb) -0.1 -0.1
Existing-home sales (Feb), Wholesale inventories (Jan) 0.1 0.2
Housing starts (Feb) 0 0
International trade (Jan) 0.2 0.2
Personal income and spending (Feb, Jan), New-home sales (Feb) -0.2 -0.2
Retail sales (Feb), Construction spending (Feb), Business inventories (Jan) 0.2 0.2
Durable goods orders (Feb) 0 0.1
Vehicle sales (Mar) 0 0
Factory orders (Feb) 0 0
CPI (Mar) 0 0
Industrial production (Mar) 0 0
International trade (Feb), Wholesale trade (Feb) 0.3 0.3
Retail sales (Mar), business inventories (Feb) 0.3 0.3
Housing starts (Mar) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Mar) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Mar) 0 0
Construction spending (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Factory orders (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) -0.2 -0.3
International trade (Mar), Wholesale trade (Mar) 0.1 0.1
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0
Housing starts (Apr) 0 0

How 2019Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

Consensus
Median
Average
Vehicle sales (Apr), Factory orders (Mar) 0 0
Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) 0.1 0.2
International trade (Mar), Wholesale trade (Mar) -0.1 -0.1
Business inventories (Mar), Retail sales (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) -0.2 -0.2
Housing starts (Apr) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2019Q1
2019Q2
Median 3.2 2.2
Average 3.2 2.1
# of Estimates 8 10

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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