Early market rally flips to sharp losses as bears reassert themselves — listen to 'The Homestretch'
Here's the transcript for "The Homestretch" Wednesday. (Note there won't be a "Homestretch" on Thursday because of the "Monthly Meeting.")
>>> HI, JIM CRAMER WITH JEFF
MARKS FOR "THE HOMESTRETCH."
AND I'VE GOT TO TELL YOU KIND OF
WHAT WE SAID AT THE 10:20, IT'S
NO GOOD THAT THE WIN STREAK OF
THE NASDAQ HAS COME TO AN END.
THAT'S WHAT I SUGGESTED AT THE
MORNING MEETING.
I FELT SEVEN STRAIGHT DAYS IS
ALL YOU'RE GOING TO GET AND WE
GOT THE REVERSAL.
BUT LET'S REMEMBER THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE WORLD.
THE DOW DOWN YESTERDAY, NASDAQ
TODAY, BUT IT DOES FEEL GOOD TO
HAVE THAT BIG POSITION.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
WHEN THE MARKET WAS GOING
THROUGH THAT WIN STREAK, YOU
KIND OF WISH YOU OWNED MORE
STOCK, BUT DAYS LIKE TODAY
CERTAINLY FEELS GOOD TO HAVE
THAT CASH POSITION.
CERTAINLY TAKING STEPS TO
INCREASE IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF WEEKS.
I DON'T KNOW IF WE'RE DONE.
>> WE'RE NOT DONE.
>> BUT THE OSCILLATOR IS STILL
VERY OVERBOUGHT, OVER 9%.
WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO THAT
NUMBER TOMORROW.
BUT, JIM, WAS A LOT OF THE
HAWKISH TAPE FROM SOME FED
MEMBERS?
I KNOW WE SPOKE ABOUT BULLARD
YESTERDAY, MESSTER TOO.
>> PEOPLE READ HEADLINES.
OH, BULLARD SAYS IT'S A SOFT
LANDING BUT THEY DON'T READ THAT
BULLARD IS REALLY HAWKISH.
YOU CAN'T HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT
IT TOO.
BULLARD MAY CALL FOR A SOFT
LANDING, ALTHOUGH HE'S NOT A
VOTER, HE CREATED -- HE CAN
CREATE A HARD LANDING SO,
THEREFORE, HIS COMMENTS WERE
MISINTERPRETED AS BEING DOVISH.
I THINK HIS COMMENTS ARE A
LITTLE MORE ALIGNED WITH
MESSTER.
SHE WANTS RATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5
TO 5.25.
AND AGAIN, THAT IS -- ON A
PERCENTAGE BASIS IS VERY HIGH
VERSUS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW.
>> AND MESSTER ADDED EARLIER IF
THEY WERE TO ERR ON ONE SIDE,
SHE WOULD WANT IT TIGHTER, WHICH
IS HIGHER RATES.
I DON'T THINK THAT'S ANYTHING
NEW OVER WHAT SHE'S COMMUNICATED
THE PAST SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS,
EVEN LONGER THAN THAT.
BUT I GUESS THE MARKET REACTION,
IT'S GIVING A REASON FOR PEOPLE
TO TAKE SOME PROFITS AFTER THE
BIG RALLY THAT WE'VE HAD THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
>> I'M WRITING A PIECE FOR "MAD
MONEY" ABOUT HOW JB HUNT STOCK
IS UP TODAY AND THEY WERE
BOOK-ENDED.
THEY HAD THE BIG UPSIDE SURPRISE
RIGHT BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF
WHAT WAS THE END OF THE BIG
CONSUMER HARD GOODS PURCHASING.
AND NOW THEY'RE SAYING, LOOK,
WE'RE ABOUT -- AND THEY DON'T
LIKE TO FORECAST, BUT LOOK,
THERE'S BEEN AN INVENTORY
CORRECTION.
THE INVENTORY CORRECTION IS
ABOUT OVER.
THAT REALLY IS THE MICROCOSM OF
WHAT'S HAPPENING.
WE HAVE AN INVENTORY CRASH IN
EVERYTHING BECAUSE WE SWITCHED
FROM AN ECONOMY OF GOODS TO AN
ECONOMY OF TRAVEL AND
ENTERTAINMENT, WHICH IS ONE OF
THE REASONS WHY WE'RE DOING OUR
LIFE'S TOO SHORT SERIES.
WE'RE DOING THAT EVERY NIGHT.
THAT'S THE SEA CHANGE.
AND THE SEA CHANGE CAUGHT A LOT
OF PEOPLE BY SURPRISE AND
CREATED INVENTORY TO GO UP
EVERYWHERE.
THERE'S A SINGLE PART OF THE
ECONOMY INCLUDING MICROSOFT,
SALESFORCE.
>> IT'S BEEN CHIPS, APPAREL,
WORKERS, LABOR ON THAT SIDE.
>> I'LL TELL YOU WHAT'S
INTERESTING IS WE NEVER THOUGHT
THAT AN INVENTORY CORRECTION
COULD INCLUDE TECH.
TECH WAS ALWAYS SECULAR GROWTH.
WELL, IT TURNS OUT IT'S A STOCK
MARKET CORRECTION AND YOU CAN'T
DO ANY IPOs AND CAN'T RAISE ANY
NEW MONEY.
YOU END UP WITH COMPANIES THAT
FRANKLY ARE ORPHANS.
WE SEE A LOT OF ORPHANS OUT
THERE.
THEY ARE IN A STORM.
THEY ARE NOT ANYTHING THAT YOU
WANT TO OWN AND THAT INCLUDES
ANY ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE STOCKS.
THERE'S TOO MUCH INVENTORY.
BY THE WAY, TOO MUCH INVENTORY
IN THE STOCK MARKET TOO.
WE ARE ABOUT MERCHANDISE.
>> SURE.
FORTUNATELY, WE'VE SEEN A SLOW
DOWN IN THOSE SPACs.
>> NO SECTORS IN THE GREEN
TODAY.
THE STAPLES AND UTILITIES ARE
DOWN THE MOST, WHICH TELLS YOU
RIGHT NOW THAT PEOPLE AREN'T
FLEEING IN THE RECESSION GROUP
NAMES, THEY'RE FLEEING THE
BONDS.
THAT'S WHY INTEREST RATES HAVE
COME DOWN SO MUCH.
PEOPLE ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT
PROCTER TOMORROW WHEN THEY
REPORT.
NOW, WE TAKE A SILENT APPROACH
TO PROCTER.
WE KNOW OVERALL ITS COSTS ARE
COMING DOWN.
PROBABLY RUMORS IT WILL TRADE
DOWN BUT IN THE END IT'S JUST A
GREAT AMERICAN COMPANY.
YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SUFFER
THROUGH UPS AND DOWNS TO GET TO
200, WHICH IS ULTIMATELY WHERE I
THINK PROCTER IF YOU'RE A
CHARITABLE TRUST OWNER, YOU BUY
PROCTER NOT BECAUSE IT GOES FROM
130 TO 152, BUT IT GOES FROM 130
TO 170 AND THEN 150 TO 180.
THAT'S THE METHOD OF PROCTER.
>> COLLECTING DIVIDEND PAYMENTS
ALONG THE WAY.
REINVESTING DIVIDENDS ALONG THE
WAY.
YOU CAN'T REINVEST DIVIDENDS BUT
WE RECOMMEND THEY INVEST
DIVIDENDS FOR THE LONG RUN.
>> I DO WANT TO MENTION
QUALCOMM.
STRANGE MOVE.
>> VERY STRANGE MOVE.
>> CITI OFFERED A NEGATIVE ON
QUALCOMM.
I THINK WE'VE GOT TO LET GO OF
QUALCOMM, MAN.
>> I AGREE.
SEMIS HAVE HAD A NICE RUN LATELY
AND THIS ONE IS STILL RUNNING,
UP ANOTHER 2% AT THE TIME WE'RE
TALKING.
SO YEAH, I THINK AFTER THIS
WE'LL PUT OUT A QUICK TRADE
ALERT PEELING BACK SOME OF THE
POSITION AND LOOK TO USE THAT
CASH TO BUY MORE EMERSON.
>> EMERSON IS OVERDONE.
LOOK, THEY SHOT THEMSELVES IN
THE FOOT.
$7.6 BILLION TAKEOVER.
FOR THAT THEY HAVE LOST ALMOST
$5 BILLION IN MARKET CAP.
>> THEY LOST ABOUT 4 BILLION
YESTERDAY.
A LOT OF INDUSTRIALS ARE DOWN
TODAY.
BUT IT KIND OF MAKES YOU WONDER,
DOES THE PUNISHMENT FIT THE
CRIME?
>> YEAH.
LOOK, I'VE MADE MY VIEWS CLEAR
THAT I DON'T LIKE HOSTILE
TAKEOVERS.
I LEARN THAT HE HAD WHEN I WAS
AT GOLDMAN SACHS.
IT'S NOT THE WAY PEOPLE WHO ARE
TRYING TO PRESERVE CULTURES WIN.
YES, NATIONAL INTERESTS MAY HAVE
ALL THE CONTRACTS IN THE WORLD
BUT IN A HOSTILE TAKEOVER, THEY
TAKE A VERY LONG TIME.
IN THE INTERIM, EVERYBODY YOU
REALLY LIKE LEAVES.
I'VE EXPLAINED THAT TO THE
COMPANY.
I THINK THE COMPANY WILL HAVE TO
RETHINK ITS POSITION.
EITHER THAT OR THE CEO OF
NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS RESIGNS,
AND I DON'T SEE THAT AS
HAPPENING.
>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, OR MAYBE
THEY RETHINK THEIR POSITION.
>> WELL, THEY BETTER RETHINK
THEIR POSITION.
>> IF EMERSON WALKS AWAY, THAT
STOCK IS GOING TO FALL.
>> IT TAKES PEOPLE LIKE US TO BE
ABLE TO SAY, ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
NATIONAL INSTRUMENT?
DO YOU KNOW HOW LUCKY YOU ARE TO
GET THIS BID TO BEGIN WITH?
OTHERWISE EMERSON IS GOING TO
BUY BACK THEIR OWN STOCK.
WERE THEY ILL ADVISED IN MAKING
A HOSTILE TAKEOVER?
COMPLETELY.
AT THIS POINT THEY PAID THE
PRICE.
I WISH WE COULD BUY SOME BECAUSE
IT'S REALLY DOWN A GREAT DEAL.
I'M DOING A PIECE ON JB HUNT AND
IT'S JUST VERY INTERESTING TO
SEE THAT THERE IS NO -- THERE'S
NO TRUCKER SHORTAGE ANYMORE.
IT WOULD BE INVENTORY DECLINE.
ALL THE THINGS THAT WERE ABOUT
TO HAPPEN LAST YEAR IN APRIL HAD
HAPPENED AND NOW PEOPLE SAY,
OKAY, LOOK, IT'S A MILD
RECESSION.
WE'RE GOING TO LIVE THROUGH A
MILD RECESSION.
SO THE THEME IS MILD RECESSION.
THAT'S A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
PEOPLE WHO SAY THERE'S A
RECESSION AND PEOPLE WHO SAY
DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT.
I THINK IT'S A MILD RECESSION OF
WHICH WITNESSED BY THE FACT
PEOPLE WANTING TO OWN A TRUCKING
COMPANY AT A POINT WHERE WE
ALREADY ARE STARTING TO DISCOUNT
THE MILD RECESSION.
SO, JEFF, TOMORROW WE'VE GOT OUR
MEETING.
AND IT'S GOING TO BE AT NOON.
WE ARE VERY MUCH ON THE FLY
TODAY, OBVIOUSLY, BECAUSE WE
WANTED TO GET TO YOU AND TELL
YOU THAT OUR BIGGEST WORRY, EVEN
THOUGH INTEREST RATES ARE DOWN
TODAY, WAS THAT THE MARKET WOULD
HAVE A SELL-OFF WHEN PEOPLE WERE
GOING NUTS.
WE GOT THAT RIGHT AT 10:20.
I KNOW IT SOUNDS HARD THAT YOU
HAVE TO JUST LISTEN TO THE 10:20
AND THIS ONE, BUT THIS IS
DIFFERENT.
WE'RE DOING THINGS THAT ARE OFF
THE CUFF, THAT NO ONE HAS EVER
DONE BEFORE, AND WE'RE DOING IT
FOR YOU.
AND WE WILL SEE YOU -- WE WILL
NOT DO A MORNING MEETING OR A
HOMESTRETCH TOMORROW BECAUSE WE
WILL BE DOING ENTIRELY THE
MONTHLY CLUB MEETING.
>> YEP.
THE CALL IS FROM NOON TO 1:00,
SO ALL OF OUR THOUGHTS WILL BE
OUT THERE LIVE REALTIME.
NO TAPE DELAY.
SO THAT'S ALWAYS FUN AND
ENJOYABLE.
I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO A MONTHLY
MEETING AND TALK ABOUT THE
MARKET.
GOT SOME Q & A GOING, NEW STOCK
WE JUST ADDED.
>> INITIATION THAT WE DO SO WELL
AND IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASE,
EVERYONE RECOGNIZE, JEFF, LET'S
GO SELL SOME QUALCOMM.
THIS IS JIM CRAMER WITH JEFF
MARKS FOR "THE HOMESTRETCH" AND
WE WILL SEE YOU TOMORROW FOR OUR
CLUB MEETING.
