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Apple to get bruised? Inside past day-after reactions

Apple's quarterly report following the closing bell could send shares sharply lower Thursday even if the company hits earnings estimates—if history is any guide.

During the past 20 quarters, the company's seen an average bump of 0.4 percent the day after it delivers quarterly results, according to FactSet data.

While this average seems like a tepid reaction, most second-day moves have been on the sharper side. Interestingly, during this period, the majority of the company's steepest declines have been over the past two years.

In Apple's case, even an earnings beat doesn't necessarily translate into content investors. Of the past eight quarters, six have seen negative day-after stock swings despite Apple only falling short of earnings forecasts twice. During the past 20, Apple missed earnings forecast three times, but second-day share reaction was negative nine times.

EPS Beat or Miss
Price Action Day After Earnings (in %)
1/27/2014 Beat -8
10/28/2013 Beat -2.5
7/23/2013 Beat 5.1
4/23/2013 Beat -0.2
1/23/2013 Beat -12.4
10/25/2012 Miss -0.9
7/24/2012 Miss -4.3
4/24/2012 Beat 8.9
1/24/2012 Beat 6.2
10/18/2011 Miss -5.6
7/19/2011 Beat 2.7
4/20/2011 Beat 2.4
1/18/2011 Beat -0.5
10/18/2010 Beat -2.7
7/20/2010 Beat 0.9
4/20/2010 Beat 6
1/25/2010 Beat 1.4
10/19/2009 Beat 4.7
7/21/2009 Beat 3.5
4/22/2009 Beat 3.2
Source: FactSet

—By CNBC's Katie Little with reporting from Giovanny Moreano

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