Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS, was in attendance at the Moscow conference. He said that prior to the gathering, everyone expected the focus to be on Ukraine. Instead, it's shifted to the conflict in Iraq.
"The word here is that nothing (regarding production) has stopped, but everybody has contingency plans and is very focused on security even though they're a hundred miles away," he said.
The global industry is also watching to see what the U.S. will do in response, he said. President Barack Obama on Thursday said military advisors would be sent to Iraq, but U.S. troops would not return to combat.
Yergin said talk at the conference is also centered on the idea that Kurdistan could move toward de facto sovereignty, and that its relationship with Turkey has been strengthened.
"If this wasn't happening, one would be looking toward greater Iraqi production coming into the market. What this does is it gives the Kurds a freer hand to pursue their oil production, and in terms of seeking their sovereignty," he said. "The credibility of Iraq as a state is now at stake."
The southern, Shiite-controlled oil fields are the richest in Iraq, and they currently produce about 2.6 million barrels a day. However, that number is projected to reach a record 2.8 million barrels by July, and 3 million by year-end, according to Citigroup.
BP CEO Bob Dudley told CNBC this week that BP is actually increasing production in southern Iraq, at the request of the government, though nonessential personnel are leaving the country. Dudley was also at the World Petroleum Congress.
Yergin said Lukoil was also expected to increase production in West Qurna in southern Iraq, where its production could reach as much as 400,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, up from 120,000 barrels a day currently. The northern part of the country around Kirkuk, now under Kurdish control, produces about 400,000 to 500,000 a day, according to IHS.
Separately, the Kurdistan Regional Government-controlled area in northern Iraq exports about 125,000 barrels a day via a new Iraq-Turkey pipeline system and plans to increase exports to between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels a day during July, and up to 400,000 by year-end, according to Citigroup.
Morse expects to see the Kurds try to strike a deal with Baghdad on exports.
"I tend to be optimistic on their being an agreement to do that before the end of the year, long before the end of the year," said Morse.
According to Barclays, the huge Baiji refinery, out of commission because of fighting, and a nearby 1,320 megawatt power plant are responsible for one-third of Iraq's refined fuel and nearly 10 percent of its electricity capacity. The refinery is located 130 miles north of Baghdad.
It's the northern region of the country that provides oil for domestic consumption, while about 90 percent of the oil from the Shiite-controlled south is exported, according to Barclays.
So far, the only reported disruption to the flow of oil out of Iraq is through the 600,000 barrel Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs from Kirkuk to Turkey. The pipeline has been out of commission for several months due to attacks by militants.
Read MoreIraq is on the verge of collapse: David Phillips
The Sunni-controlled regions of Iraq don't produce oil.
The view of Citigroup Middle East analysts is that ISIS will not make much headway into the south of Iraq, or as far as Baghdad. Some experts see Iran, a close ally of the current Iraqi government, taking a bigger role militarily if Iraq's holy cities or capital are really threatened.