The S&P 500 could have a total return of 11 percent next year, including a nearly 2 percent dividend, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's senior advisor said Wednesday, a day after a fifth-straight session of gains on Wall Street.
Historically, the S&P has had a total yearly return of nearly 8 percent, David Darst noted during a interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
"You'll see earnings rise about 7 percent this [coming] year and another 7 percent in 2016. And then you get a small expansion in the P/E [price-to-earnings ratio] multiple from 16.4 to 16.9, times $134 [in earnings] gives you 2,275 on the S&P 500," Darst said.
Both the S&P and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Tuesday at record highs, their 51st and 36th respectively this year. The Dow also broke through and finished above 18,000 for the first time ever.
For 2014, the Dow was up nearly 9 percent and the S&P was up more than 12 percent as of Tuesday's close, excluding dividends. The reason for that difference, Darst said, comes down to two stocks. "The Dow has only 30 stocks ... and it's been dragged down by Chevron and IBM this year." As of Tuesday's close, shares of Chevron were down nearly 9 percent and IBM was down 13.5 percent for 2014.