Jim Cramer sees two different types of takeover targets in the market right now: companies that can help their acquirers grow and those that have good business but not good enough to please the activist shareholders. That's it.
The first group of acquired growth pertains to deals like Anthem's attempt to buy Cigna. Anthem's infrastructure could handle all of the customers that Cigna would bring, and it would reduce a massive amount of duplication among the HMOs.
This deal makes sense to Cramer, as it would give Anthem the growth it wants, and it certainly beats having to cut prices in order to get more customers.
Cramer also puts Energy Transfer Equity's $48 billion bid for Williams Companies in the same category. It would create a huge pipeline and give Energy Transfer it desperately needs.
Then, there is the second category of takeover stocks, the kind that requires an activist to step in. For instance Jana's recent position in ConAgra, which Cramer sees as a positive gain for the long term, if Jana is invited on to ConAgra's board of directors and make it a better company.
But the real homerun situation for Jana would be if there was an outright sale. Either way, it's a win-win situation for Jana.
But what about Twitter? Cramer has seen plenty of speculation from investors that suggests that all it needs is an activist to turn it around. Is that really the answer?
Currently, there is no strong leadership at Twitter, and the interim CEO is trying to do everything all at once. He is ridiculously trying to chauffeur his other company, Square, through the IPO process while trying to find a new CEO for Twitter.
"Given that absurd situation, I think Twitter could be an obvious target for activism," Cramer said.
In Cramer's perspective, an activist could easily buy 5 to 6 percent of Twitter's shares and then push for change or a sale. However, right now activists refuse to get involved without a safety net.
Cramer argued that unless an activist can get Twitter to sell itself—something that could happen without a permanent CEO—then the activist could lose a ton of money if Twitter cannot grow its user base fast enough. Ultimately, Twitter could get hammered with a terrible quarter, and the activists don't want to risk it.
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"I think it's too high risk for most activists to take a shot at," Cramer added.
And while the logical acquirers of Twitter, such as Google and Yahoo, could still make a move on the company, Cramer doesn't think that will happen without an invitation to make a bid. That invite is something that activism could easily provide.
So, while it might make perfect sense for an activist to step in on Twitter, Cramer doesn't think that will happen because it's not a win-win situation. And that's not something Twitter can provide right now.
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