Top analyst: Early Apple iPhone 6S sales are weak

Published Thu, Sep 17 201511:31 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Sep 17 201511:37 AM EDT

Early evidence is suggesting demand for the iPhone 6S may be meaningfully lower than last year's model, according to a top-ranked technology analyst. Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest wrote a provocative note to clients on Wednesday evening showing Google search volume, device shipments availability, third-party surveys and a lack of quantitative statements from Apple and the wireless carriers all point to weak iPhone demand. Hargreaves is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. His picks average a 33 percent one-year return with a 70 percent success rate and he is ranked in the top 1 percent of all analysts, according to TipRanks.com. Here's why he believes iPhone demand is weaker… 1) Google search volume much lower than last year: iPhone 6S search volume is 75 percent below last year's iPhone 6 and 25 percent lower than even the iPhone 5S according to Google Trends, said Hargreaves. "The absolute level of search volume for iPhone 6S remains significantly below iPhone 6 at a comparable point. ... The relative search volume highlights what we believe is a significant gap between demand levels that are likely during the iPhone 6S cycle and the demand levels that are implied by sell-side estimates." 2) Broad device shipment availability: "As of this morning, nearly every iPhone 6S SKU across the four major U.S. carriers was available for delivery on the Sept. 25 launch date. This is a sharp contrast to a year ago, when delivery times for the iPhone 6 pushed out within hours of the opening of the preorder window." Read More Is the thrill gone for Apple investors? 3) Third-party surveys show less upgrade demand: A survey by 9to5Mac with 40,000 participants said 52 percent of iPhone owners intend to upgrade to the iPhone 6S compared to 83 percent in the same survey for the iPhone 6 a year ago. As an Apple-focused blog, Hargreaves states the relative decline is more important than the absolute level. 4) Lack of quantitative statements: "Apple's own comment, which notably excluded any quantitative commentary on preorder volume, other than to say it was 'strong' a subjective term we find mostly meaningless at Apple's scale." Read More Following huge beat, buy Best Buy? Hargreaves calls out Apple for not giving a specific preorders number like the company did a year ago with a 4 million unit preorders press release . He noted how Apple stating the iPhone is on track for record first-weekend sales doesn't mean much as this year China became a preorder launch country, which it wasn't in 2014 until mid-October. China sales represented 27 percent of Apple's revenue in the last quarter, so guidance of up year-over-year first-weekend sales this year with the important Asian country isn't a big positive. Although Hargreaves likes Apple as a long-term investment, he recommends investors stay cautious in the next few months until iPhone sales expectations come down. He reiterated his "sector weight" rating and 12-month fair value of $139.

Apple CEO Tim Cook introduces the new iPhone 6s and 6s Plus at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium on Sept. 9, 2015, in San Francisco.

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Early evidence is suggesting demand for the iPhone 6S may be meaningfully lower than last year's model, according to a top-ranked technology analyst.

Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest wrote a provocative note to clients on Wednesday evening showing Google search volume, device shipments availability, third-party surveys and a lack of quantitative statements from Apple and the wireless carriers all point to weak iPhone demand.

Hargreaves is one of the top analysts on Wall Street. His picks average a 33 percent one-year return with a 70 percent success rate and he is ranked in the top 1 percent of all analysts, according to TipRanks.com.

Here's why he believes iPhone demand is weaker…

1) Google search volume much lower than last year:

iPhone 6S search volume is 75 percent below last year's iPhone 6 and 25 percent lower than even the iPhone 5S according to Google Trends, said Hargreaves.