Donald Trump's plan to "make America great again" would result in a two-year-long recession and a sharp increase in unemployment, among other ills, according to a Moody's Analytics report.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee has said he will negotiate better trade deals, clamp down on illegal immigration and enact major tax cuts that he believes will restore American competitiveness. The Moody's Analytics economists, though, see a darker future.
They envision a country with 3.5 million lost jobs, much larger debts and deficits, and an economy that will contract. The billionaire businessman's tax cuts largely will benefit the wealthy while household incomes will stagnate and asset values fall, according to the report from Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis, Dan White and Adam Ozimek.
"The economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump's economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office," the report said. "By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7 percent, compared with below 5 percent today.
"During Mr. Trump's presidency, the average American household's after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline."