Now that the August jobs report is in — a less-than-expected 151,000 — major Wall Street firms are mostly looking at a rate hike in December at the earliest.
But September is not completely off the table yet. CNBC looked at some of the top banks' analysis on when the Federal Reserve could hike next, after raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade last December.
Goldman Sachs — September has a 55 percent chance of a rate hike, and there is an 80 percent probability for a rate increase later this year. August's 151,000 figure is just high enough "for a large majority of officials to support a September rate increase," Goldman's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a report Friday.
Barclays — The September call is still intact as the jobs report should maintain the confidence most members of the Fed's rate-setting committee have in the economic outlook. "Most members will view this report as consistent with solid economic activity and will believe that the activity will continue to pull inflation upward toward their target," Barclays chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, said in a note Friday.
BlackRock — December is now more likely than September for the timing of the next rate hike due to the deceleration in the headline jobs figure in August's report.
Citi — The probability for a rate hike in both September and December is now lower since subcomponents of the jobs report disappointed. Private sector job creation of 126,000 was well below the roughly 180,000 estimate, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.1 percent month over month after a 0.3 percent rise in July. However, since investors likely expect August's headline figure to be revised upward in the near future, that should result in a smaller write-down on December's odds than September's, Citi analysts said in a Friday note
JPMorgan — December should still mark the timing of the next Fed rate hike, and the chance for a September rise is about 20 percent. "The pace of job gains last month was double the sustainable pace, so it is hard to call this a bad report, but it is definitely less exciting than the boomy June-July figures," JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday in a report.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch — December is still this bank's call for the next rate hike. The August jobs report "was soft," but BofAML economists said in a Friday note they "expect healthy growth ahead."