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Why President Trump will never sign the GOP's corrupt health care bill

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, a Republican from Wisconsin, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California, left, exit following a news conference at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, March 7, 2017.
Zach Gibson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, a Republican from Wisconsin, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Republican from California, left, exit following a news conference at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, March 7, 2017.

There's a reason why conservatives are rejecting the Republican Congressional leadership's Obamacare replacement bill. And there's a reason why President Donald Trump will eventually back away from the plan.

It stinks.

What other word can you use to describe a plan that keeps most of Obamacare's entitlements but strips away a lot of the funding for them? What other word can you use to describe a plan that still crowds out smaller insurance providers by maintaining minimum coverage requirements that still don't make sense for millions of customers? What other word can you use to describe a plan that will do nothing to lower prices or increase supply of care? What other word can you use to describe a plan that has nothing to do with free market principles?

But the bigger question right now is: Why would the Republicans in Congress come up with or back a plan like this? After eight years of bashing the big government/one-size-fits-all imposed insurance of Obamacare, the GOP plan basically preserves all those essential outrages. And while Congressman Kevin Brady described the bill as, "this is Obamacare gone" Tuesday, only the most out of touch American could really believe that.

Before we go any further, the point of this argument is not just to parrot the very worthy classic conservative and libertarian objections to this bill and the ACA. I've made those arguments already and will do so again. But getting to the root of this failure by the Republicans in Congress is more important now because we'll never get a decent health care policy in America until we can address what's really stopping the politicians from acting in our best interest.

"The Obamacare replacement bill debacle is just one of the best examples of how the GOP Congressional leadership suddenly goes deaf to the peoples' concerns after Election Day."

The simple answer is fear and greed. Fear of criticism in the media and pressure from the White House are the prime reasons why the GOP rushed out this bill faster than even the Democrats put together the poorly crafted Obamacare legislation. The Congressional Republicans, often portrayed by fans and critics as strident politicians who don't care what the main stream media says, are hardly that.

Criticism in the media has cowed this bunch countless times before, especially during the government shutdown in 2013 when the Republicans wilted under the pressure of front page editorials in the major newspapers. And that retreat had a lasting effect. Even after the Republicans won control of both houses of Congress in 2014, the very first promise then-House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made was a vow not to shut down the government in 2015.

In other words, the Republicans have been willing to surrender Congress' exclusive power of the purse based on the residual effect of media criticism even after they win major mandates via the ballot box! This is not just cowardice, but choosing cowardice in spite of the most important evidence.

The Obamacare replacement bill debacle is just one of the best examples of how the GOP Congressional leadership suddenly goes deaf to the peoples' concerns after Election Day. The Republicans in Washington clearly care more about what the media says about them for the other 364 days of the year. This pattern was bad enough before this past election, but in the wake of President Trump's victory despite massive media opposition it's more inexcusable than ever. And yet still it persists.

So if the Republicans in Congress aren't listening to their own voters, who are they listening to? That's another easy one to answer: The lobbyists. One look at this Obamacare replacement bill and you can see how big insurance company and hospital lobbyists have their fingerprints all over it.

The continued high number of minimum coverage requirements for any approved insurance plan will effectively keep smaller competitors out of the market and out of business. So much for increased competition. And big hospitals will win out thanks to the bill's continuation of the Medicaid expansion. Lobbyists have never cared what party controls Congress, they just lobby and usually win.

All of this is yet another example of the political class at work. Poll after poll shows that the American people don't trust Congress or any politician to tamper with their health care and coverage in a closed door, confusing, and speedy process. And yet, both parties keep doing just that. For something as personal and vital as health care, only the most publicly accessible process is acceptable.

With this failure now exposed for all to see, where does President Trump come in? So far, he's been supporting the bill and even predicted on Twitter Tuesday night that Senator Rand Paul will eventually back the plan.

But the more likely outcome is President Trump will be the one to come around and back away from a bill that would do more to exacerbate Obamacare's problems than to solve them.

For now, President Trump also seems to be motivated by polls that came out right after the election saying he should tackle health care first. Of course that poll indicates support for change, not a bill with quick and dirty change like this one.

This rush to fix Obamacare with a bad bill is out of President Trump's winning character. That's why his support for the plan has an impending expiration date.

Whether the White House pulls its support from the bill entirely or works a little more behind the scenes to amend it remains to be seen. But either way, the bill has no chance to pass as is. The best case scenario is that its inevitable failure will convince the White House to use its unique connection to average Americans and re-open this vital replacement/improvement process with the people truly involved.

Clearly, the political class-filled GOP-controlled Congress is a lost cause on this one. They proved it again with this Obamacare replacement bill that fails on almost every level of political and economic viability.

For most of the last 22 years, the Republicans have been in charge on Capitol Hill and that power has clearly corrupted them into being just as bad and disconnected from the people as the Democrats were for their previous four decade control of the legislative branch.

The fact that the established Republican branch of the party was badly whipped by President Trump in the primaries didn't teach them a thing about doing their jobs better. And when it comes to fixing or replacing Obamacare, it's time for them to get out of the way.

Commentary by Jake Novak, CNBC.com senior columnist. Follow him on Twitter @jakejakeny.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.