Hurricane Barry dumped more than 23 in. of rain in places as it stormed up the Mississippi River Valley from Louisiana and Alabama to Arkansas and as far north as Ontario, Canada, this week. Although the weather system did less damage than initially feared, some experts say that, thanks to climate change, things will only get worse going forward.
Andreas Prein, project scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, recently told the New York Times that climate change is upping both the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall storms.
Where does that leave homeowners? Within three decades more than 386,000 homes in coastal areas of the U.S. will be at risk of permanent submersion or regular flooding due to climate change, according to a recent study by real estate website Zillow and nonprofit weather news site Climate Central.
About 40% of the American population may be affected to some degree. Those residences are collectively worth nearly $210 billion in 2018 dollars, according to Zillow; in the top 10 cities likely affected, losses could total more than $34 billion. Things look even more grim further out in time: By 2100 some 2.5 million homes nationwide, worth about $1.3 trillion altogether, could be at risk if the scientific data and resulting computer models are correct.
Here are the 10 cities predicted to be worst affected by 2050, along with the amount of local housing affected by flooding and its value.
Source: Zillow.com
Updated 18 July 2019. Originally published 14 March 2019.
10. Virginia Beach, Virginia
Total value of housing in risk zone: $1,046,508,894 (By 2100: $9,468,757,353)
Share of housing in risk zone: 1.3%(By 2100: 17.3%)
Housing count in risk zone: 1,887 (By 2100: 24,692)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 2.2% (By 2100: 20%)
9. Boston
Total value of housing in risk zone: $1,151,043,082 (By 2100: $35,084,609,593)
Share of housing in risk zone: 0.7% (By 2100: 22%)
Housing count in risk zone: 833 (By 2100: 25,923)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 1.1% (By 2100: 33.5%)
8. Stockton, California
Total value of housing in risk zone: $1,696,419,875 (By 2100: $5,441,951,253)
Share of housing in risk zone: 5.9% (By 2100: 22%)
Housing count in risk zone: 4,415 (By 2100: 16,552)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 7.3% (By 2100: 23.4%)
7. Seattle
Total value of housing in risk zone: $2,164,936,680 (By 2100: $2,752,414,258)
Share of housing in risk zone: 0.8% (By 2100: 1%)
Housing count in risk zone: 1,491 (By 2100: 1,894)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 1.3% (By 2100: 1.6%)
6. Long Beach, California
Total value of housing in risk zone: $2,169,035,241 (By 2100: $6,924,518,935)
Share of housing in risk zone: 1.7% (By 2100: 5.8%)
Housing count in risk zone: 1,580 (By 2100: 5,284)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 3.5%(By 2100: 11.2%)
5. Charleston, South Carolina
Total value of housing in risk zone: $2,194,053,387 (By 2100: $10,617,186,228)
Share of housing in risk zone: 5.9%(By 2100: 38.6%)
Housing count in risk zone: 2,650 (By 2100: 17,437)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 10.2%(By 2100: 49.4%)
4. Miami Beach, Florida
Total value of housing in risk zone: $2,920,635,593 (By 2100: $37,604,140,241)
Share of housing in risk zone: 10.8% (By 2100: 85.2%)
Housing count in risk zone: 5,177 (By 2100: 40,730)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 6.5 % (By 2100: 84.1%)
3. New York City
Total value of housing in risk zone: $3,905,220,573 (By 2100: $87,307,101,711)
Share of housing in risk zone: 0.5% (By 2100: 7%)
Housing count in risk zone: 6,259 (By 2100: 95,210)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 0.3%(By 2100: 6.4%)
2. Newport Beach, California
Total value of housing in risk zone: $5,276,358,560 (By 2100: $16,237,386,190)
Share of housing in risk zone: 6.4% (By 2100: 18%)
Housing count in risk zone: 1,861 (By 2100: 5,205)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 6.6%(By 2100: 20.2%)
1. San Mateo, California
Total value of housing in risk zone: $11,926,104,726 (By 2100: $14,592,425,181)
Share of housing in risk zone: 34.2% (By 2100: 41.6%)
Housing count in risk zone: 8,951 (By 2100: 10,890)
Share of total housing value in risk zone: 28% (By 2100: 34.3%)