Charting Asia with Daryl Guppy

Daryl Guppy

Contributor

Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.

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    Drawing accurate trend lines lies at the heart of chart analysis. It looks easy but accurate trend line placement is more difficult than it appears at first glance. Accurate trend line placement, based on well-defined rules is the foundation of more complex analysis techniques. It is also the foundation of stop loss and risk management

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    The current IEA intervention is a body blow to the price uptrend, which has been in place since June 2010. It drives prices back towards $87/barrel.

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    The long-term fundamental factors like talk of a technical default in the U.S., a weakening Dow index and insipid economy, which have contributed to US dollar weakness, have not disappeared, so long-term downward pressure remains.

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    The Nasdaq China Index is moving towards the upper edge of the historical trading band near 190. This is a well-defined support level. Aggressive traders will look for a rebound development from this level.

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    A new head and shoulder pattern has developed in the Dow. The rapid falls of last week confirmed the right shoulder of the pattern. The depth of the pattern puts the downside target near 11,600.

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    Oil remains on a bull run. The fall from near $114/barrel to below $100/barrel is a correction, but not a change in the trend. This behavior sets a higher price target for oil as the uptrend continues.

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    The Euro/Dollar is at a significant point with the potential to prove the placement of trend line B and thus signal a continuation of the up trend. Failure of support at trend line B signals a change in the trend and a move towards $1.29.

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    There is a high probability gold will test the $1,460/ounce support level before developing a slower uptrend rebound. If margin changes continue to flow through the system, then the lower targets between $1,420/ounce and $1,440/ounce are the valid support level

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    The collapse in the silver price from $49 an ounce to below $36 is a harbinger of collapses in a wider range of commodity prices. It is the end of speculative bubbles that have been building for several months. The collapse is triggered by changes to the way the trade is executed. Look for downside in silver to around $31/ounce.

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    The oil price is the foundation for inflation. The NYMEX oil chart shows the next target for oil is near $124. The chart also shows a new pattern of price behavior. This pattern often ends with a sudden price retreat and Osama Bin Laden’s death may be enough to create these conditions.

  • Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.