Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia. He runs training, analysis and resource workshops for retail and professional financial market traders involved in stocks, CFDs, warrants, derivatives, futures and commodities in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia. He has his own trading company, guppytraders.com.
Downside targets on the Dow are 10600 with a long-term potential at 9700. Downside targets on the Nasdaq are 2370 (already exceeded) with longer-term targets near 2100. Downside targets on the S&P 500 are 1130 (already exceeded) with longer-term targets between 950 and 1000.
The S&P 500 is a broader measure of market activity. A break above 1,360 is required before a new uptrend is confirmed.
Drawing accurate trend lines lies at the heart of chart analysis. It looks easy but accurate trend line placement is more difficult than it appears at first glance. Accurate trend line placement, based on well-defined rules is the foundation of more complex analysis techniques. It is also the foundation of stop loss and risk management
The long-term fundamental factors like talk of a technical default in the U.S., a weakening Dow index and insipid economy, which have contributed to US dollar weakness, have not disappeared, so long-term downward pressure remains.
The Nasdaq China Index is moving towards the upper edge of the historical trading band near 190. This is a well-defined support level. Aggressive traders will look for a rebound development from this level.
More people are dabbling in technical analysis without really understanding what is involved.
Chart patterns suggest that dollar/yen has a high probability of retesting the lower edge of the trading channel near 95.
The Dow retreat was large, but not unexpected. The retreat presented a buying opportunity, but not for a long-term uptrend continuation.
The gold price reached the long-term resistance target projection level of $1,360 before consolidating and retreating.
Daryl Guppy is an independent technical analyst who appears frequently on CNBC Asia.