Cramer’s Ultimate Counterintuitive Investment Idea
Almost everybody on Wall Street is assuming the fiscal cliff negotiations are dead, at least for the moment. But if you still believe, Cramer has a play for you.
"Though it's not a widely held view, suppose we don't go over the fiscal cliff,' said Cramer.
If that's your view, then Cramer said go long The Blackstone Group, TICKER: BX, the big, publicly traded asset management firm.
Blackstone is a manager of private capital and provider of financial advisory services. At the moment, the company has $205 billion in assets under management.
"Suppose the fiscal cliff gets resolved quickly without wrecking the economy. I think Washington is the only thing standing in the way of an incredible bull market, not just in stocks but also in real estate, and if you take Washington out of the equation, Blackstone should zoom higher," said Cramer.
- Rotation: Cramer thinks when the cliff gets resolved investor will pull their money out of bonds and put it to work in more aggressive alternatives including Blackstone's various funds. Higher assets under management translates into higher fees for Blackstone.
- IPOs: Blackstone holds a number of private companies in its portfolio and according to Cramer, in the next twelve months they plan on bringing a number of them public. If the market is strong Blackstone should be able to get higher prices when it brings these companies that it owns public.
- Real Estate: Cramer is convinced that real estate will be a prime investment in 2013. His thesis is simple – because of the downturn there's been little development and if demand swings higher, supply is challenged. That benefits Blackstone which holds over $50 billion in real estate including hotels and office space.
- Cash: According to Cramer's analysis, Blackstone has about $61 billion on the sidelines that they could still put to work in a very lucrative manner.
- Value: Blackstone sells for 7 times next year's earnings despite having a 19% long-term growth rate. Cramer finds the valuation s absurdly cheap.
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What's the bottom line?
"I know it's counterintuitive, even perverse," admitted Cramer. "But if the nation manages to bridge the cliff without too much damage to the economy, then we're going to have a fabulous bull market in 2013. And Blackstone may be the best proxy for that bull."
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