Cramer’s Game Plan: Is a Wild Week Coming?
It may seem like the week ahead will be relatively quiet, but don't get too comfortable. Cramer said there's a catalyst coming mid-week that could rock stocks.
MONDAY MARCH 18TH
On Monday Cramer will be carefully watching technology. "You know I like tech here. It's the part of the stock market that's still cheap on a historical basis," he said.
But you can't paint tech with one stroke of the same brush. There's an area of tech Cramer said to avoid like the plague - the PC related stocks
"I think that it's being challenged by smartphones and tablets and the competition is cutthroat beyond all belief. That segment of the industry is in secular decline. With that in mind, I want you to take action Monday morning and sell Dell," Cramer counseled.
Cramer doesn't make that kind of call lightly.
"Right now Michael Dell is trying to take the company private for a little less than where the stock is currently trading. I sat rapt next to my Squawk on the Street colleague, David Faber, when Mr. Dell detailed the shocking decline in cash flow Dell has experienced in the time since this deal started percolating. To put it simply, Dell's doing terribly. I am confident that this stock can go to $8 and change, where it was shortly before the deal was announced. You cannot be in Dell. It is dangerous now, and I believe you must ring the register first thing Monday morning."
TUESDAY MARCH 19TH
On Tuesday the renaissance in real estate will get Cramer's full attention. "February housing starts come out," Cramer said.
"Right now the bulls are saying that we could build as many as one million homes this year. I think, because of the inventory shortage, we could need as many as 1.2 million homes. Make no mistake about it, housing and oil and gas are the two big drivers of this economy and I think you will be pleasantly surprised when we get this number," he said.
After the economic data is released there will be more work to do in the same sector.
"Housing's so strong that it keeps lifting all boats, including housewares. I will be listening to the Williams Sonoma conference call on Tuesday to be sure the carry over is intact."
Tuesday may also bring a slight glimpse at next months employment number.
"On Tuesday we also hear from the nation's largest uniform company, Cintas. If Cintas says sales are strong, that's a good precursor for next month's employment number. I will follow up with the information when I hear the call."
WEDNESDAY MARCH 20
Cramer said no day matters more next week than Wednesday and no catalyst matters more than the Federal Reserve meeting. This is the day when bears could pounce, depending on developments.
"I'll be blunt. From now on we are on FBFH watch. What's that? FBFH is the Fed Bolt From Hell, my new term to describe how so many people are solely focused on when the Federal Reserve is, first, going to stop buying the $80 billion in U.S. bonds it accumulates every single month to keep rates low," Cramer said.
Cramer believes bears are keenly aware of the issues and could drive selling if and when the Fed starts to sell those bonds.
"So many prognosticators think that in one of these meetings, Ben Bernanke will signal that things have gotten better, which is code for the great unwind is upon us."
That's when Cramer thinks the market may face the 'Fed Bolt from Hell' fury. " If we sell off in anticipation of Wednesday's meeting, you know that's fear of the FBFH at work."
Also on Wednesday Cramer said to watch FedEx. "We'll get a report. I consider this company among the best barometers of international trade. The company always gives you a worldwide outlook, and because its CEO is a trained economist, you get a rigorous and perhaps sobering global update," Cramer said.
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THURSDAY MARCH 21ST
On Thursday Cramer will be watching to see if Yoga is a temporary fad or a shift in lifestyle. "We hear from Lululemon," he said. ."I think LuluLemon can be the Nike for women's clothes, but I also know that it is highly valued and retail is choppy right now so I would be cautious."
FRIDAY MARCH 22ND
"These two are failing upwards. Darden missed the last quarter's estimates with disappointing numbers from both Olive Garden and Red Lobster, yet its stock has been on a tear. Tiffany's missed three quarters in a row and yet it's roaring, perhaps because we just learned that Qatar Investment Authority, a ten percent owner, just bought 823,000 shares," he said.
Cramer said not to chase either stock at current levels. "However if Tiffany gets hammered on the report, he'd look for an entry point on the pullback."
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