"I still see fiscal drag, disinflation. I see weakness overseas. I see a rising dollar, so what…do I get excited about housing coming off of incredibly low levels? And I see a modest improvement in the labor market," said Gilmore. "I just don't buy this escape velocity ahead, and that the economy is mended. Credit is flowing. I don't buy any of that."
Gilmore said it is possible the Fed will taper before the end of the year, and he is waiting to hear whether Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes any comments about it when he appears before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress next Wednesday.
"I think from the Fed's point of view, the Fed is not comfortable doing more QE, growing its balance sheet," he said. "But I don't see a strong fundamental reason in the economy and prices to justify that."
The Dow fell 42 to 15,233 and the S&P 500 lost 8 to 1650. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note retreated to 1.87 percent from 1.94 Wednesday, as the disappointing economic reports brought in buyers.
Adrian Miller, director of fixed income strategy at GMP Securities, pointed out Thursday morning an interesting break in the correlation between high yield corporates and equities during the four trading days ending Wednesday. Stocks gained two percent to record highs, and high yield corporates declined a half percent in that period. The average high-yield corporate bond yield fell below 5 percent last week, but it was up to 5.193 percent by Wednesday.
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"It's definitely something I'll be watching closely to see where it goes. We're beginning to see new issues shake a little bit out of the break," he said. "It's been overvalued to begin with, not unlike near term equities. Near term equities are ahead of themselves. High yield's been stretched for a long time, which makes it vulnerable to shifts in sentiment." Miller said its usually stocks that break the correlation first.
The SPDR Barclays High-yield Bond ETF JNK is down 0.4 percent for the week so far, while the S&P 500 is up 1 percent. According to Lipper, $478 million went out of high-yield ETFs in the past week, while $416 million came out of investment grade bond ETFs.
What to Watch
The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the Internal Revenue Services' screening of conservative groups at 9 a.m. ET.
JC Penney holds its shareholder meeting at 11 a.m. in Plano, Texas.
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at 1:45 p.m. on the future of financial regulation and monetary policy.
Facebook stock will be one year old on Saturday.