The Next Move in Gold Is…?
That's what we asked Talking Numbers contributors Enis Taner, Global Macro Editor at RiskReversal.com, and Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson.
"There's a tug-of-war going on right now between a Federal Reserve saying they might taper in the second half of this year versus the Bank of Japan on full blast on monetary easing," says Taner. "The problem for gold is that the Chinese, who have actually been the biggest monetary stimulator over the last ten years, have pulled back because of concerns over inflation. And that's hurt the whole commodities complex."
Ross was blunter. "Gold remains a sell for me," he says.
Charting gold over a year, Ross sees a downwards sloping trend line that was once support line but, beginning last month, became a resistance line when the price of the yellow metal dropped. The drop was so steep that it hasn't been able to test the 50-day moving average at $1,490 per ounce. Ross sees a double bottom around $1,350 serving as support given the current situation in the Japanese markets.
There are better alternatives to gold, according to Ross. "Stocks are the place to be. We have a stronger dollar, we have rates back up, and we have a continuing bid in equities. All of that is negative for gold."
Taner believes the fundamentals agree with the technicals, saying "I think the bull market in gold is over."