Do the fundamentals matter for crude oil?
When you look at the crude oil markets Monday and compare them with the picture from just a few weeks ago, you will realize that fundamentals have taken a back seat to technicals. Sure, there has been a slight uptick in demand, geopolitical tensions have risen and the dollar has come off of its recent highs.
But does this justify a $10 move to the upside? I think not. The market is very well supplied, and while demand is stronger, it is still nowhere near where it was just a few years ago.
(Read more: Expect $50 oil, but not $2 gas, Gulf Oil CEO says)
So with that, let's take a look at the technical picture.