$1 in market in 2000, today would be...$1

Wednesday, 17 Jul 2013 | 11:46 AM ET
David Grogan | CNBC

Investors have had to navigate a market that for the last 13 years has delivered no real returns, according to Morgan Stanley's Greg Fleming.

Today's S&P 500 reading in the 1,680 range and around historic highs doesn't look so special when compared to the March 2000 top at 1,527.

Using some basic math—specifically, the government's inflation calculator—the current value would have to be closer to 2,000 to have grown in lockstep with inflation.

(Read More: Bernanke: Markets beginning to understand our message)

"The U.S. stock market is on almost everybody's list at the top of where people think the most opportunity will be in the next year. I don't disagree with that," Fleming said at the Delivering Alpha conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor. But, he added, if you invested $1 at the March 2000 peak "you would still have a dollar."

The great rotation
Greg Fleming, Josh Friedman and Michael Hintze discuss where they see the biggest opportunities in the coming year, at the 2013 "Delivering Alpha" conference in New York City.

The statement came in the broader context of the supposed "Great Rotation" in the market of money flowing from bonds to equities. There has been some evidence that a transition has begun, though the evidence is far from convincing.

(Read More: Social Buzz from #Delivering Alpha)

In the big picture, Fleming said the trends emphasize the important of investors to be creative in their choices.

"You really need to think with asset allocation in a long-term plan," he said.

Rather than a mass exodus to stocks, Fleming said he's seen a more gradual move from clients.

—By CNBC's Jeff Cox. Follow him on Twitter @JeffCoxCNBCcom.


Contact Delivering Alpha

Video Highlights

  • Institutional Investor's Alpha Magazine is out with its annual hedge fund report card. Michael Peltz, Institutional Investor executive editor, provides insight.

  • Treasury Secretary Jack Lew offers a keynote at the Delivering Alpha conference in New Yourk City on July 17th, 2013. Lew says financial reform is imperative and even though a lot has been done already, there's an emerging recognition that a framework will provide stability and eliminate gaps in oversight.

  • As deleveraging and debt dominate headlines, there is no lack of negative news across the financial world. But, in an era of more pitfalls than windfalls, where are the world's best investors finding opportunities? What is next on the global stage and how can you profit from it, with CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Chief International Correspondent; Mary Callahan Erdoes, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; David McCormick, Bridgewater Associates; Jane Mendillo, Harvard Management Company; and Richard Perry, Perry Capital

Delivering Alpha