Even though we are seeing record supplies for crude oil, and China's growth is moderate at best, the crude market has held up fairly well over the last few weeks. So what gives?
First of all, we have unrest in Egypt once again. In addition, we are in the peak of driving season, which historically has been bullish for crude demand and oil products.
(Read more: Egypt's Brotherhood stands ground after killings)
So what do I see on the oil chart now?
Well, the first resistance is at $105.40 to $105.55. Above that, there is resistance at $107 to $107.50.
In terms of getting long, I would be a buyer at $103.80 to $104, with a stop about a dollar lower. If oil trades through there, I am a buyer again from $102.50 to $103.
My bias does lean toward the long side for now. The only way oil trades lower from here is if equities are fairly weak, there are no storms, and the Middle East is quiet. And if you're asking for all three of those factors, then you're asking for a lot!