China's export engine is expected to have stalled in September reflecting the subdued recovery in the global trade cycle, say economists.
The country's trade data, which is due to be published on October 12, is projected to show exports rising 6 percent on-year in September, down from 7.2 percent in the previous month, according a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to have grown 7 percent, the same growth rate as August.
"While trade both ways looks a little better than it did a few months ago, we haven't seen the kind of quick recovery to strong growth rates that we saw in earlier economic recoveries," said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at RBS.
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"This is because the recovery in developed countries - the U.S., Europe and Japan - isn't as import intensive due to the household de-leveraging, and fiscal consolidation taking place. This is a bit of dampener on the global trade cycle, and impacts Asian exporters like China," he said. The U.S. is a major market for Chinese goods, accounting for around one-fifth of overall exports.