'Obamacare Rally'? It's as good a reason as any
Stocks in general and health care in particular are showing virtually no fear that the Affordable Healthcare Act's dismal debut may have more widespread repercussions.
In a perverse way, the current market's movement, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching 16,000 for the first time ever, could be called the "Obamacare rally."
That's the label Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut—with tongue at least partly in cheek—put on the market Friday in a note to clients:
I'm calling this the Obamacare rally because the worse the Obamacare roll-out gets, the higher the stock market goes! I don't know what the correlation factor is, but it certainly feels like that is the driver of this latest breakout to the upside for the S&P 500.
(Read more: What does the Obamacare 'fix' mean for you?
Market psychology certainly has been hard to divine as the major indexes soar to record highs. Friday's early rally, for instance, came against deflationary U.S. signs in the form of declining import and export prices, as well as overnight news showing at least a hiccup in the European recovery story.
Saut thinks the latest run could be a little reverse psychology and maybe a little voodoo.
Indeed, it isn't the economic numbers, a decline in interest rates, earnings reports, revenue reports, or more cooperation inside the D.C. Beltway; so, it has to be Obamacare and the belief that it is so bad there is going to be a change. Change you can believe in! It kind of reminds me of 2008 when I was stating that, "The whiter Ben Bernanke's beard gets, the more trouble the entire financial fabric of this country gets."
There are tangible signs, though, that investors remain confident.
The latest Investors Intelligence survey showed the bulls still firmly in control among newsletter editors, with a 52.6 percent to 15.5 percent advantage over market pessimists.
(Read more: Why Obama is 'spent'; why that's bad for Hillary)
Mutual funds—generally considered the purview of retail investors—saw a net inflow of $1.7 billion to stock-based offerings, according to Thomson Reuters.
In the specific area of health care, the SPDR Health Care Select Sector exchange-traded fund has raked in $300 million during the tumultuous November for Obamacare, according to IndexUniverse. The fund has gained 2.3 percent over the past month and is up 42.2 percent over the past year.
Sault thinks there would be some danger lurking for the market, but sees opportunity as well.
In the current euphoria, nothing seems to matter. If the equity markets are able to ignore the natural timing elements for a pause/pullback, the Federal Reserve and the lure of a solution to Obamacare will have overpowered what should have occurred. Nevertheless, I adhere to the quote from Pericles, "The key is not to predict the future, but to prepare for it." Still, any pullback represents a buying opportunity in what I believe is an ongoing primary uptrend.
—By CNBC's Jeff Cox. Follow him on Twitter @JeffCoxCNBCcom.