BlackRock bond guru: Now I prefer stocks to bonds
Jeffrey Rosenberg is one of the world's foremost bond experts, but that doesn't mean he's a huge fan of that asset class. In fact, Rosenberg says that stocks are a far better bet than bonds for 2014.
"The outlook is very clear here," Rosenberg said on Tuesday's "Futures Now." Given "the outlook here—better economy, still-accommodative monetary policy, OK valuations—we clearly favor stocks over bonds for 2014."
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Rosenberg, the chief investment strategist for fixed income at BlackRock and no relation to the author, said that Treasurys in particular will have a lot working against them in 2014.
"You're getting a little bit better economic growth, and the Fed's pulling back a little bit," Rosenberg said.
After all, not only do rates tend to rise as the economy improves, but a better economy means that the Federal Reserve will feel comfortable in putting an end to the accommodative policies that have helped the bond market—most notably its $85 billion-per-month quantitative easing program.
Rosenberg says that 10-year Treasury notes are "at an inflection point," and are likely to rise another 50 basis points in 2014, to about 3.25 percent.
The first big catalyst for that move could come in a matter of days.
"We're going to focus on this Friday," Rosenberg said. "The employment report is definitely going to set the tone for how quickly the Fed is looking to pull back."
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Yet because Rosenberg expects bond yields to rise (and bond prices to sink, given that they move conversely to yields) on the back of an improving economy, he says a huge surge in yields is unlikely.
"You're not going to have the kind of 100- or 200-basis-point move that people fear, or the 150-basis-point increase we had this year, because of the impact that would have on slowing the economy," Rosenberg said. "So it's a restrained rise in interest rates in 2014."