Market is ignoring the bubble in housing: Pro
While the data supporting the case for a housing bubble are out there, few people are actually paying attention, real estate advisor Mark Hanson said Thursday on CNBC.
"According to our research, house prices on a monthly payment basis today, with rates at 4¾ percent, are more expensive than they were in 2006 at the height of the bubble. And that's because from 2003 to 2006, people used other than 30-year fixed-rate loans," he said.
"Remember, 70 percent of all the loans originated in California, Arizona, Nevada—all these places experiencing this hyper-appreciation right now—people used loans like pay-option ARMs, interest-only loans. So, when you normalize it for that, house prices are in another bubble in these states right now, if, in fact, 2006, 2007, was actually a bubble."
Sales of new homes in November declined 2.1 percent month over month, according to government data.
On CNBC's "Halftime Report," Hanson, housing strategist at Mark Hanson Advisers, noted that housing sales have been flat around the 30,000 to 32,000 sales per month average for the year, far short of the 450,000 to 600,000 sales expected for all of 2013.
"That's a big miss," he said.
Hanson said that he didn't know what would prompt a pickup in sales volume or housing prices.
In California, housing prices on average are 26 percent lower than they were in 2006, while housing payments were 12 percent, higher, he noted.
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"There's not a lack of supply in which to live out there," Hanson added. "There's hundreds of thousands, if not millions, out there of individual and institutional investors who have bought houses who are readying them to put on the market."