Other factors include higher oil prices and lower output from European refineries.
"I'm expecting that gasoline prices over the next couple of weeks are going to rise and approach $3.50 a gallon nationwide," said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. "The main reason is actually that crude oil prices have been rising, as well as prices of gasoline futures."
WTI crude futures are now trading above $103 a barrel, after trading under $100 for several months.
(Read more: Wicked weather taunts traders)
"We're in the midst of the refinery maintenance season, as we go through March," Lipow said. "Some supplies through the East Coast are going to be impacted by local refinery outages. Some are out and combing back at the end of February."
Even with a quick jump in retail gasoline prices, the increase is likely to be below average for the annual winter-to-spring changeover.
The average increase in futures prices in the past 30 years has been 57 percent, which would be $1.40 a gallon, according to GasBuddy, though it expects a much smaller rise. Regular gas averaged $3.30 a gallon for the first six weeks of 2014, the cheapest since 2010.
Lipow predicts that prices will peak at about $3.70, and then head lower around Memorial Day, the start of the summer driving season. That's below last year's price, which was averaging $3.77 a gallon a year ago.