JPMorgan Chase's disappointing first quarter reflected a slowing loan portfolio that could forecast trouble ahead, a top banking analyst told CNBC on Friday.
Anthony Polini, a bank analyst for Raymond James, said the investment bank missed his total loan projections by a "fairly substantial amount"—about $15 billion.
Amid a blitz of legal and regulatory woes, the megabank saw profit plunge 19 percent during the first three months of 2014, reporting earnings per share of $1.28—a figure far short of Wall Street consensus forecasts of $1.40 per share.
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JPMorgan suffered from falling revenue in its trading business, but Polini said he was more concerned about slowing growth in commercial loans, a traditional area of strength for the bank.
"The key negative, and it doesn't really show up in earnings per share, is we didn't have an acceleration in commercial loan growth," Polini said on "Squawk Box." "We had a modest increase in commercial loans but nothing we had hoped for."
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He added that the lackluster quarter may affect this year's prices more than next year's.
Polini holds a 12-month $72 price target on JPMorgan shares, a 25 percent jump from current prices.
"There's a lot of value in JPMorgan," Polini said. "They have a great business model. They're growing the international platforms. And this was a tough quarter."
Wells Fargo saw profits rise 14 percent in the first quarter, beating analysts' expectations of 92 cents per share by 8 cents. The massive home lender suffered from a drop in mortgage refinancing, but Guggenheim Partners' Marty Mosby said the bank boosted profits through cutting costs and collecting returns on smart investments.
Mosby said he expects a pullback in commercial lending during first quarters generally, such as what happened at JPMorgan. It didn't occur at Wells Fargo, he said. The bank saw back-to-back quarters of growth in its loan business, Mosby added.
"Wells Fargo is going to be the only bank in this large-cap bank space that will be able to accomplish what we call the triple crown: positive surprise in the earnings for the quarter, sequential double-digit growth and double-digit growth over a year ago," Mosby said. "They're showing nice momentum in earnings."
Mosby has a price target of $60 per share on Wells Fargo, almost a 25 percent increase from current prices. He also holds a "buy" rating on JPMorgan.
Disclosure: Raymond James received securities-related and non-securities compensation from JPMorgan within the past 12 months. Guggenheim Securities received compensation from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan.
—By CNBC's Jeff Morganteen.