Just because the Australian dollar has soared to eight-month highs this week doesn't mean it's about to make stab at parity against the greenback soon, some analysts say.
The currency has been on an upward trend since late January. It's gained about 6.5 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year, making it the best performing major currency after the New Zealand dollar.
Its strong performance, driven by a rise in risk appetite and firm demand for Australian bonds, has led some currency analysts to believe that parity with the U.S. dollar could be achieved by year-end.
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Yet this week's leg higher should not be taken as a sign that a move to the one-to-one level with the U.S. dollar is likely to come sooner rather than later, says Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Bank in Sydney.
"We've had parity in our prospects for some time, but we don't expect it in 2014," he said. "The reason for that is that global economies in general, including China, should have a better 2015 and that means next year should be very good for the Aussie."
"So we're not extrapolating too much from this latest move," Callow added.
The Aussie dollar rose as high as $0.9504 on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and delivered as statement that was viewed as less dovish than anticipated.
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"The market anticipated concerns about mining investment, commodity prices, the strong currency and fiscal tightening but none of that appeared in the statement," said Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management, in a note.
"Instead the central bank stuck to script and even sounded a bit upbeat which explains why the Aussie dollar spiked higher in relief," she added.
Lien said that while she expects further gains in the Aussie dollar, the currency is likely to face strong resistance between $0.95 and $0.9550.
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A move to parity would imply a further gain of over 5 percent from current levels around $0.9465.
"We don't think the Aussie dollar has significant impetus to reach parity against the U.S. dollar this year," said Emma Lawson, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.
"The domestic economy is relatively modest and Australia's declining terms of trade and forecasts for a stronger U.S. dollar means the Aussie dollar should move lower this year," she added.
Data on Wednesday showed Australia's May trade deficit at A$1.9 billion, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a deficit of A$120 million.
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Recent data also shows consumer confidence in Australia has taken a hit from the May budget, which slashed welfare spending and hiked taxes for high-income earners to rein in a budget deficit.
The concern, say economists, is that the fall in confidence will spill over into weaker retail sales and makes the economic outlook uncertain.