EU ramps up sanctions
The European Union is drawing up proposals to impose tougher "phase 3" sanctions on Russia, including sanctions targeting key sectors. At the moment, it looks like leaders are still divided on how severe the next round of sanctions should be.
"From the US/EU perspective they have to raise the stakes to the point that further escalation by Putin is just too costly from the economic perspective, or else he will think that the prize in Ukraine is still worth the effort and risks," Tim Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank, warned.
Russia takes further military action
If Russia moves from assisting Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, to outright military intervention in the country, it could "explode the world" according to Andrii Kuzmenko, the acting Ukrainian ambassador to the UK. Russia may choose instead to gradually ramp up its involvement by sending in more professional soldiers from its ranks to help the separatists.
Ukrainian elections
There will now be general elections in Ukraine, probably in late October, and until then President Petro Poroshenko, a chocolate magnate, will effectively rule the country. The new government is likely to contain more pro-Western politicians – but also likely to be "more fragmented" according to Otilia Dhand, vice president at Teneo Intelligence. One consequence of the war on Ukraine's borders is likely to be a swing towards more nationalist Ukrainian parties, which might make working with Russia even more difficult.
- By CNBC's Catherine Boyle