Spoiler alert: The mid-term election of 2014 will result in epic disappointment. And that's actually a good thing.
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We should expect the news media, political advertisers and talking heads to try their best to turn the November election into a "message sender." It will be considered the moment when Americans (and many Democrats) will finally say "enough" because of the ineptitude and obnoxious inaction taking place on Capitol Hill and inside the White House. The build-up will be intoxicating and cause spirited debates in homes, offices, trading floors, and streets around the country.
And, it will result in nothing but hot air because most Americans are willing to accept mediocrity and feel all politicians are morons anyway.
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Everyone knows the numbers by now: Only 14 percent think Congress is doing a "good" job and 40 percent of you are pleased with the President's handling of all things regarding the United States of America. These numbers, quite frankly, are embarrassing and makes you wonder what these people can possibly do to recover from such a horrific performance record. Chances are nothing.
If you're a political junkie and you think the political landscape is going to greatly change with the November election, you may want to consider a new line of work. And, if you do, you may want to seek a position working on Wall Street because history tells us — if things go as plan this fall — we may be looking at a stock market destined for eye-popping results; which will essentially be a boon to investors and those associated with Wall Street.
According to poll after poll, all we hear is how the GOP will hold power in the House and likely will take control of the Senate. Actually, there will have to be a remarkable change in sentiment and patriotic attitude over the next eight weeks to get the Dems to hold the Senate. So, for all intent and purposes, let's assume the surveys are right and the GOP will be successful in the election.
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The question you need to ask now, though, is how successful; and this is where things can get a little tricky, but tremendously awesome for the markets.
Realistically, the GOP will hold 51 to 53 Senate seats after the voting is finished. Although Republicans will be happy with this outcome, the bottom line result will be irrelevance in the world of government. Without the baseline 60 seats, Republicans will have a difficult time blocking President Obama from fulfilling any tangible policies of his domestic agenda. Although, the country should probably brace itself for an avalanche of recess appointments leading up to the election because that's really the only thing the GOP will realistically challenge the President on without a super majority.
Regardless, though, who cares! The last time the GOP held power in both chambers and a Democrat resided in the White House was when Bill Clinton was President. And, during that six year period, the S&P 500 rallied 188 percent.
Let me say that again: 188 percent!
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We are already in the middle of a historic bull rally, which some will attribute to Fed action and/or President Obama's legacy of inaction and/or the GOP's revisionist stance over the past six years. But whatever it is, it's clear the country can expect another 24 months of boring political rhetoric, empty promises and mindless dribble. And Wall Street will cheer!
Although, there is one key and critical takeaway all of us have to remember when it comes to an agnostic approach to leadership: A breakdown in foreign policy, and that is one area the country can ill-afford to mess around with. But it does remain a wildcard, so — as a result — all of us should anticipate this bull market to continue hitting higher highs.
After all, the less action Washington takes, the better the returns on Wall Street.
Commentary by Todd M. Schoenberger, president of J. Streicher Asset Management LLC. He also serves as portfolio manager of the LandColt Onshore and Offshore Funds. Follow him on Twitter @TMSchoenberger.
