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The revolution is not over: How Bernie Sanders can still win

I'm a true believer. The revolution is coming. Both the right-wing and the left-wing are sick of the establishment. Neither Trump nor Sanders supporters believe the politicians have their best interests in mind. Anyone who can't see this tsunami of revolt is purposely closing their eyes to it. That's usually because they are a part of the system that Americans are now revolting against.

So, would it be nice if Bernie Sanders makes an epic comeback—and it would have to be epic—and wins the Democratic primary? Yes! Is it necessary? No! This is the beginning of the revolt against the establishment, not the end.


Bernie Sanders
Mike Segar | Reuters
Bernie Sanders

However, before we plot out the rest of the revolution, let us first plot out the rest of this race. And that quest begins with math.

Bernie Sanders is trailing by about 300 pledged delegates when there are still about 1,200 outstanding pledged delegates left. Is it impossible to close that lead? No. Is it improbable? Yes.

So, how would he do it? If he is going to win he would need to first make sure that Hillary Clinton doesn't get a majority of delegates without using super delegates. That seems very, very doable. Let me explain.

She now has 1,645 pledged delegates. You need 2,383 delegates to clinch. So, if she doesn't use super delegates, then she needs 738 of 1,206 remaining delegates up for grabs. She is very unlikely to win that many delegates in the upcoming states, which largely favor Bernie Sanders.

That means the first thing Sanders supporters have to do is make sure he wins those states and picks up as many delegates as he possibly can to block her winning the outright majority with just pledged delegates.

At this point, you have to be wondering, "Yes, but what about the super delegates?! They're almost all on her side." Yes, of course, that's why Sanders' chances of winning are not very high. But the whole point of those super delegates is to make sure that the Democratic Party does not have a deeply flawed or hobbled candidate going into the general election. Their job is not to overrule the will of the voters because they don't happen to agree—that's why a lot of them switched from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama in 2008 when he won a majority of the pledged delegates.


So, what would constitute a deeply flawed or hobbled candidate? How about one that just got indicted?

That's not me, or any other Sanders supporter, rooting for an indictment; that's just acknowledging the reality that it might happen. A dozen FBI agents aren't investigating this issue for their health.

For Clinton supporters who adamantly deny that it can ever happen, I have a simple question—how do you know? Do you have a mole inside the FBI? Or are you sure that even if the FBI concludes it was a crime, that the Attorney General would fix the case to make sure she doesn't get indicted anyway? Either thing would be a hell of a thing to know. If you do know that definitively, then perhaps the FBI should talk to you as well.


This is the exact scenario the super delegates were created for. If Sanders has enough pledged delegates to win with the super delegates on his side, then he is still in this race.

I have no idea how probable an indictment is or when it would come—and anyone who claims they know (and is not inside the FBI), then they are obviously not telling the truth. So, it's very possible this scenario never unfolds because the indictment either doesn't ever come or comes disastrously for the Democrats right in the middle of the general election. But it is also possible that it comes within the next six weeks—and then we have a ballgame.

Whether the Clinton team wants to acknowledge it or not, that is absolutely the reality.

Commentary by Cenk Uygur, the host and founder of online news program The Young Turks and CEO of the TYT Network, which generates more than 90 million views per month across a range of digital platforms. Uygur has previously hosted shows on MSNBC and Current TV. Follow him on Twitter @cenkuygur.

For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.