The January jobs report showed more than 100,000 jobs were created last month than economists expected. Beats of that magnitude usually spark a lot of optimism about the economy, driving stocks higher over the subsequent days and months and benefiting energy, industrial and banking stocks the most, history shows.
CNBC analysis using the Kensho tool looked at all the times in the last 20 years when the jobs report exceeded estimates by 100,000 or more and what happens to stocks and certain sectors the day of the report, as well as one week and three months later.
Day of:
- S&P 500 jumps 0.6 percent on average
- Best stocks: Industrials (+1.1 percent avg. gain), Energy (+0.9 percent), Technology (+0.8 percent)
One week later:
- S&P 500 adds 0.6 percent on average
- Best stocks: Industrials (+1.5 percent avg. gain), Energy (+1.2 percent), Technology (+0.9 percent)
Three months later:
- S&P 500 adds 1.8 percent
- Best stocks: Energy (+6.9 percent) Materials (+4.2 percent avg. gain), Industrials (+3.4 percent), Financials (+3.2 percent)
This historical data via Kensho fits with the fundamental case. A much stronger-than-expected jobs report signals the economy is doing better than we thought, so investors pile into economically sensitive stocks like energy and industrial shares. Bank stocks do well as yields jump, as they were on Friday.