Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's historic victory can't help but be a positive for markets, even if briefly.

American voters cast their ballots for change, and as they voted in the presidential election, they made it clear they were unhappy with the economy, upset about their personal finances and looking for a government that will handle the financial crises differently. They also elected an African American to the highest office for the first time, an event that should energize some of the U.S. population, which historically has thrived on and gains confidence from the belief that all Americans can succeed.

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But investors will soon focus back on the economy and what the President-elect will do to tackle its many problems. The markets may also gain temporary relief from the fact that a long, contentious campaign is over.

Wall Street traditionally fears Democratic policies and in the case of Obama, it fears his tax proposals. But plenty of pundits have been saying that his tax plans may be put on hold because of the struggling economy.

"Obama's got to come out of the box very strongly," said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Stanford Financial Group. He said Obama needs to get an economic summit together immediately and set the groundwork for the Nov. 15 meeting with world leaders on the financial crises.

Valliere said he expects Obama to move quickly on identifying a Treasury secretary. He said New York Fed's Tim Geithner would be a top candidate, followed by former Clinton Administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Wednesday Look Ahead

Valliere said he expects the market to very shortly turn its focus to Friday's jobs report, expected to show a worsening employment picture. Data expected Wednesday includes the ADP employment report, released at 8:15 a.m., and ISM nonmanufacturing data, reported at 10 a.m.

Stocks could drift for a second day Tuesday as voters head to the polls to cast their votes for the 44th president of the United States.

"I think this is another piece on the good pile," said Jim Pauslen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "Whoever wins, there's going to be a sense that we're turning the page."

Stocks were nearly unchanged Monday after trading in a relatively tight range. The Dow was down 5.18 at 9319.83, and the S&P 500 was down 2.44 at 966.31. Paulsen noted the stock market has not traded with volatility this low since early September. For one day, gone were the triple digit Dow moves of October.

Confidence Building

"There is a great importance to this election. I think a lot of what we've dealt with in the last six weeks has to do with how we sold TARP (the financial bailout)," said Paulsen. He said people became scared as major leaders kept saying how dire the situation had become.

"I do think for that reason this thing could have more impact than it may normally. I don't think Democrat or Republican is that important near term," said Paulsen. He said if Democrat Sen. Barack Obama wins, there may not initially be the typical type of fears about Democratic spending because of the huge cost and extraordinary steps the government is taking to fix financial markets and the banking industry.

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"Does anyone think they're going to do a lot of tax raising now?" he said. "Normally, you'd worry about excessive government spending." He said those issues and concerns could come back in the future, but for now, the focus is on the sick state of the financial markets and economy.

Paulsen said there's a sense that Obama has won, but if Sen. John McCain manages an upset or if the race is very tight, the market could react negatively because of the uncertainty factor.

What if the Democrats sweep Congress, as some pundits say could happen. Some traders say that would be a negative. "That might have some play to it. That could have some negativism to it," Paulsen said. "I just don't see that's the overwhelming driver of this market right now."

Has the Market Bottomed?

Citigroup chief equities strategist Tobias Levkovich, in a note Monday, said it seems possible the stock market has bottomed. "Since 1929, the mean decline for the S&P 500 during bear markets is 36.5 percent. Given that the market already has dropped nearly 46 percent from peak-to-trough, it seems possible that the equity market may have bottomed," he wrote.

Levkovich said investors are wondering who the buyers will be for stocks. Institutions are nervous and there's anecdotal evidence from financial advisors that individual investors are getting out of the market. "While we know that there is a great deal of cash on the sidelines, it is unclear what the specific catalysts will be, igniting the internal fortitude to step up and buy stocks. Yet, within the current context of valuation and confidence measures, history argues more to be positive than we ever could," he said.

Paulsen said he thinks we've probably seen the worst. "I think the downside risk from here is very limited ... Not to say we couldn't go back to test those lows again. We very well could. I just think a 50 percent retrenchment discounts the worst case recession scenario," he said.

Econorama

There's not much on the data front, and the next big event will the jobs data on Friday. On Tuesday, factory orders are released at 10 a.m. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on economic challenges at 10:45 p.m.

Monday's markets digested a lot of signals on the economy, most of them bad. For one, car makers released October sales data, showing the biggest decline in more than two decades. The ISM survey showed national factory activity fell to its weakest level since 1982.

"It's telling us there's been a complete collapse in the discretionary areas of the U.S. economy," said MKM Partners chief economist Michael Darda of auto sales. "It's feeding on other business areas as well."

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Also released Monday was the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey showing that banks tightened lending standards dramatically for businesses and consumers, even prime borrowers. Eighty-five percent of banks tightened lending on "commercial and industrial" loans, and 95 percent tightened lending standards for the lines of credit they extend to large and medium sized businesses.

The lack of consumption and the private sector's lack of spending on business equipment "leaves a pretty big hole." Darda said. "The only thing out there working in the other direction is government spending. We got data today showing export demand is collapsing."

"Manufacturing, consumer spending and business spending and now the export side. This has global recession written all over it," said Darda.

He said he is looking for non farm payroll reductions of 200,000 or more, when the October employment report is released Friday. He also expects unemployment to peak at 8.2 percent in the first part of 2010.

Earnings Central

We realize it's early to make any statements about the stock market returning to "normal," but today's action begs the question of whether some of the volatility has been shaken out.

Stocks will be volatile but a little calmer in November after the brutally wild weeks of October.

The presidential election should give the market a bounce in the week ahead, but the focus will quickly shift back to the economy when jobs data is released Friday.

October was the worst month for stocks since 1987. The same volatile month also saw the past week's 10 percent gain, the biggest weekly advance since October 1974.

Traders say the election Tuesday is the key to the week ahead. But they will also be watching to see if credit markets continue to heal. There is also a heavy calendar of economic data, and quarterly earnings from some big names, like Cisco Systems , Walt Disney and Berkshire Hathaway .

"The market generally rallies because the headwind of an election is over and now you have greater certainty," said Dan Clifton, director of policy research at Strategas.

"In the week and day after the 2006 election, the stock market went up fairly significantly," he said.

• FEATURE: Short Post-Election Stock Bounce?

Clifton said the market has priced in some of a potential Democratic victory, as Sen. Barack Obama leads in the polls, but not entirely. He said to look for moves in sectors that would be affected by Obama's policies. For instance, the sectoral plays like construction and engineering that might benefit in an Obama Administration are currently beaten down. Health care stocks have been used as a defensive play, but they could see some selling pressure if Obama wins.

"We expect a lot more volatility in the health care space in the next couple of days," he said.

Markets Mayhem

The Dow lost 1,525 points in October , or 14 percent, to 9325. In the past week, it gained back 946 points or 11.3 percent. The S&P 500 lost 16.9 percent or 197 points to 968.75 for the month. In the past week, it rose 91.98, or 10.5 percent. The Nasdaq slumped 17.7 percent or 370 points to 1720 for the month. It was up 10.9 percent in the past week.

• Track Major World Markets

In October, heavy volatility in the currency market drove the dollar 10 percent higher against the euro. It finished the past week at $1.2744 per euro. It also fell 7.4 percent against the yen for the month, but gained 4.1 percent against that currency in the past week.

• See The Dollar, Euro, Yen & More
• Bond Prices & Yields

The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 1-4/32 for the month to 100-8/32, raising its yield to 3.968 percent. The two-year was yielding 1.572 percent.

Oil saw its biggest monthly drop in the history of exchange traded crude contracts. Oil was down $32.83, or 32.6 percent for the month, at $67.81 per barrel. It gained 5.7 percent in the past week

• Oil, Gold, Financial Futures

The credit markets, the source of much of the stock market's pain, showed signs of life in the past week. Libor, the bank to bank lending rate, continued to decline to more normal levels.

• Credit Spreads and Libor Data

The Fed's involvement in the commercial paper market helped that market show signs of improvement this past week. The selling tide was also stemmed in emerging markets, where the Fed, IMF and local governments pledged or took action.

"Was it a good week? Absolutely," said Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures Management.

Was October the Bottom?

PNC Wealth Management chief investment strategist Bill Stone said the election will be a positive because it ends a period of uncertainty. He said Friday's jobs data may matter to the market if it's unexpectedly weak.

"Lately, the economic data hasn't seemed to have huge impact. I think maybe if you got a really poor one, you might see some troubles in the market. There's still going to be that eye on the lookout for the worst case scenario — the 'depression watch,'" he said.

Economists expect the loss of 200,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, and a rise in the unemployment rate to 6.3 percent, from 6.1 percent.

Stone recently did a study comparing consumer confidence and the S&P 500's performance. It showed total returns on the S&P were greater following periods of low confidence (less than 100) than following periods of high confidence. He said the same result was true in one, two, three and five-year periods, and the weaker the confidence reading, the better stock market returns.

In the past week, the Conference Board's consumer confidence reached 38, the worst number ever recorded, and ironically the market had one of its best gains in history that day.

Stone said he did the study to show that the market can turn while news is still bad. "Those people who continue to wait for better news to invest are likely to miss the boat," he said. But Stone said that it's possible the market could return to its lows in November.

"We obviously feel better because we've gotten further and further away from that Oct. 10 low, but they've sold into every rally so far. There's no law that says bottoms or lows have to be tested. We won't know for some time," he said.

Stone said he sees lots of values in the market for investors willing to dip in. He is overweight large cap and recommends sticking to high quality names, because it's unclear how long the credit crunch will last. He likes consumer staples, health care and information technology.

"Whether people decide to buy the value or not, I can't tell you. It's sitting out there waiting, and we know there's tons of money on the sideline, so you've got all the ingredients to start the fire. Whether they decide to strike the match and let it go, I don't know," said Stone, when asked whether stocks would end the year higher.

Econorama

Friday's jobs reports is the big economic headline to watch in the coming week.

Another major read on the economy will be the monthly sales of auto makers, released Monday throughout the day. The results, expected to be the worst in years, are released against a backdrop of efforts by GM and Chrysler to forge a merger.

On Monday, ISM manufacturing data is also released, as is construction spending. Factory orders are reported Tuesday, and ADP's employment report is released Wednesday, as are ISM nonmanufacturing jobs.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims are reported, as are Q3 productivity and unit labor costs. Chain stores report monthly sales that day, and that could be a good preview of what to expect in the coming holiday shopping season.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England hold rates meetings Thursday. Traders expect rate cuts.

Wholesale trade, consumer credit and pending home sales for September are reported Friday.

Several Fed officials are speaking in the coming week. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on economic challenges at the Texas Cattle Feeders Association at 10:45am CT Tuesday. Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh speaks to the Money Marketeers of New York University Thursday evening at 7pm ET on the promise and peril of the new financial architecture. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks Friday on the economic outlook at 12pm ET in Palm Beach, Fla.

Earnings Central

Energy stocks and consumer brands are among the companies reporting in the week ahead.

Here's something to think about as you listen to all the talk about whether the stock market has bottomed or not. Historically, when the Dow gets clobbered in October, it gets slammed again in November. In November though, the declines are typically smaller.

Cleve Rueckert of Birinyi Associates took a look at data on the Dow going back more than 90 years. "If we look at the DJIA since 1915 there have been seven Octobers that have been down more than 10% (including this one). In each case, the Dow is down for the month of November," he wrote.

November, over the same time frame, ranks sixth in terms of market performance. Nothing special. But in terms of daily volatility, it ranks second, just behind October. December, historically, has been the best month for stocks.

In November, 1987, the Dow declined 8 percent after October's record 23.2 percent decline. This October, the Dow was down 15.3 percent as of Thursday. Other than 1987, all of the other double digit Dow declines date back to the 1930s and earlier.

Fear seems to have held back buyers after those particularly lousy Octobers. "I think it takes a while for confidence to come back," Rueckert said.

Novembers After Weak October*

% Chg % Chg

Oct '17 -10.74 Nov '17 -2.48

Oct '29 -20.36 Nov '29 -15.33

Oct '30 -10.52 Nov '30 -1.33

Oct '32 -13.50 Nov '32 -8.97

Oct '37 -10.61 Nov '37 -10.63

Oct '87 -23.22 Nov '87 -8.02

Oct '08 -15.33 -

Average: -14.90 -7.79

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com

The massive ice jam around credit markets is beginning to show signs of thawing under the heat of government intervention.

As investors are distracted by the wild gyrations in the stock, the credit markets this week are showing signs that a slow healing process may be taking hold.

The credit markets are "okay. It feels a little better today," said Greg Peters, global head of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley. Libor, the bank to bank lending rate, continues to come down, and some key parts of the credit market are showing signs of improvement, including commercial paper.

The stock market, meanwhile, finished higher Wednesday, but not before making some big swings. The Dow ended at 9180, up 189, while the S&P 500 finished at 954, up 24.

Markets Mayhem

On Friday, investors can say goodbye to the worst month for stocks since October, 1987. The Dow is down 15.4 percent for the month, its 11th worst monthly performance ever. At its low for the month, it was down 27.4 percent. The largest Dow point swing ever was the 1018 point move on Oct. 10. Eight of the 10 biggest point moves for the Dow happened this month, and the average point swing was 605 points.

Expect more volatility on Friday. Investors will be watching for more impact from end of month trading as some mutual funds come to their year end and others rebalance. There will also be a few data points to watch, including personal income and spending, and the employment cost index, all at 8:30 a.m. Chicago Purchasing Managers data is released at 9:45 a.m., and consumer sentiment is reported at 10 a.m.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on mortgage finance at 2 p.m. to a conference at the University of California at Berkeley.

Stocks will likely rock and roll again Thursday.

Wednesday's market was particularly volatile, although for a good part of the day it was unusually calm as investors waited for the Fed's rate decision. In the final half hour, the Dow wiped out a big gain to end 74 points lower. The Dow was up 298 at its peak, and down 174 at its low point.

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"It's surreal every day," said one trader. "The closes are unbelievable."

Heavy fund selling, and some buying, ahead of the end of the month Friday has been blamed in part for this week's wild swings.

"I'm hoping this market settles down after Friday and there's some kind of normalcy next week. The credit markets are remaining tight and overnight lending remains decent," said Patrick Boyle of LaBranche.

The Fed Wednesday shaved a half point from its target Fed funds rate, as expected, but it also made some gloomy, though not unexpected, comments about the economy. The Fed said growth has slowed markedly and the extraordinary financial market stress could put the economy at greater risk.

Econorama

Investors Thursday will be watching for third quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims. There are also some major earnings, including Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, Marathon Oil, Motorola, CVS/Caremark, Colgate Palmolive, Apache, Waste Management, Avon Products and Newell Rubbermaid.

Stocks on Wednesday can't help but feel some of the spillover of Tuesday's euphoric upswing, as the Fed winds down its two-day meeting with an anticipated rate cut.

Traders expect the Fed to trim the Fed funds target rate by as much as a half point, taking it to 1 percent when it makes its announcement at 2:15 p.m. But it really is the calming of global equities and credit markets that could have more immediate impact on trading than the Fed.

Stocks bounded higher, by a stunning 10 percent plus Tuesday, driven in part by the idea that credit is moving more freely. A report that the Bank of Japan was considering a rate cutpushed the yen lower , in its biggest one-day decline against the dollar in three decades. The Dow rose 889 or 10.9 percent to 9065.12, its second biggest point gain in history. The S&P 500 rose 92 to 940, an increase of 10.8 percent.

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Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategists warn that the yen's decline does not mean that deleveraging is over or "that risk appetite has returned unbridled." They expect trading conditions to remain choppy, and investors will focus on how well Asian equities markets hold up overnight.

Miller Tabak's Tony Crescenzi, in a note, said he sees signs the Fed's commercial paper program starting to work, and he expects the trend of falling Libor to continue. Libor is the bank to bank lending rate. "Libor is being pressured lower by the launch of the Federal Reserve's Commercial Paper Funding Facility," he wrote.

Crescenzi also said the Fed's facility is helping free up money for the inter-bank market by reducing corporation's dependence on bank credit.

Tuesday's trading saw strong buying on decent volume in some downtrodden names, including the financial stocks.

Earnings Central

Some big earnings are out Tuesday including Procter and Gamble, Kraft, Comcast and Aetna, as well as Hess, Tesoro and Murphy Oil.

Monday's late day selloff was a stinging reminder that volatility still rules the stock market and the sellers are still in charge.

Stocks were "quietly volatile," as one trader described it, before tanking in the final minutes of the session. The Dow finished off 203, off 2.4 percent at 8175, and the S&P 500 was off 27 or 3.2 percent at 848.

Tuesday's markets will be just a variation on the same theme, but traders are now focusing on the Fed's two-day meeting, where it is widely expected to cut its target Fed funds rate by a half a point. That would make the rate 1 percent, its lowest level since 2004. The Fed is expected to announce its decision Wednesday at about 2:15pm ET.

• NEW: CNBC.com Investing Page

"We're still saying the cut will be 25 basis points, but it could be 50. We think there will be open-ended language," said Robert Harrington, head of block trading at UBS. "..It's not the end-all and be-all, but incrementally it helps."

The market expects the rate cut, but many traders like Harrington say more signs that the credit markets are healing are what's really needed to get the stock market going again.

Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com, said traders in all markets will be watching the reaction of equities markets to the Fed move. "Whether it will matter or not is whether the equities markets respond...If there's no relief rally, it shows this deleveraging and asset liquidation is not finished yet. Then there's more pain to come in the stock market, and that's going to keep the dollar supported and the yen supported," he said.

The dollar Monday finished at $1.2542 per euro, a gain of 0.34 percent. It was down 1 percent against the yen at 93.58. Dolan said if the dollar rallies through $1.25 per euro, its next stop would be $1.22, then possibly $1.20. For the yen, he says if it does not stabilize above 90, the G-7 could intervene. (See Currencies/forex data at a glance .)

"I don't think anyone was expecting the complete implosion of equities around the world," Dolan said. "This is very much a panic and no doubt there is some overshoot in terms of the prices we're seeing."

Stocks have taken the driver's seat in global markets. "They capture the public's imagination much more than currencies or bonds," said Dolan.

"The key is when these Asian markets show some signs of stabilization. What we're feeling is very much the redemptions and forced liquidation from hedge funds and other asset managers," he said. He added that it may be that once hedge funds deal with the month end and October winds down, the markets will quiet down.

"There is some hope with the change of month we get a little bit of a respite from this, but then you're just left with a shell shocked market," he said.

Econorama

Monday's U.S. stock market was surprisingly quiet part of the day, after a vicious selloff wracked Asian markets and left a mixed picture in Europe. The market sold off early, then stabilized until late in the day. Monday's report on new home sales was viewed as a positive by traders, but the number, like last week's existing home sales, does not mean housing prices will stop falling.

"Are you just seeing turnover because of distress sales? I don't think you can get too excited about it," said Harrington.

New data on home prices is expected Tuesday at 9am with the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Other data Tuesday includes housing vacancies for the third quarter and consumer confidence, both released at 10am.

Earnings Central

Earnings news will continue to be important in Tuesday's session. Occidental Petroleum, British Petroleum, Valero, U.S. Steel, Martha Stewart, Whirlpool, SAP and Royal Caribbean report early in the day. DreamWorks, Apollo Group, and McKesson report after the bell.

Coca-Cola , Archer-Daniels and Deere should like this history lesson.

Even poor students of history know it never exactly repeats itself, but we all have been scratching the past for clues to guide us though the current harrowing times. So here's a historic analysis I think you'll find particularly interesting.

Think back to 1929, and you immediately think stock market crash. Ouch. Ok, that's similar to now. Next, think ahead two years into the future (that would be 1931). By analyzing stock performance, you'll see an interesting picture of investor behavior. Michael Painchaud, Director of Research and Principal at Market Profile Theorems did just that and he thinks some of these lessons are still relevant.

Painchaud looked at stocks as they made new highs after the 1929 crash. All three of those NYSE-listed stocks mentioned above were on a list of stocks that made new highs within two years of the 1929 crash. The 1929-'31 list, attached below, contains some other names you will know -- Federated Department Stores and U.S. Steel. There are others you maybe never heard of (Raybestos-Manhattan?), and some you'll be surprised by (Exchange Buffet, a vending machine cafe).

There's a heavy representation of food companies, industrials and manufacturing. Three movie companies made it too, and some old reliable utilities. You will notice that financial companies did not make the list.

"The lesson is obviously that investors had gone very defensive. Firms which tended to provide products and services which were at the very basic level of the economy did well, and there wasn't too much room for anything else," he said. But I note they bought entertainment names, too. (Do movies then = iPods, HDTV, and videogames now?)

Also, Coke wasn't the defensive name it is now. You have to assume it was more about growth.

You'll also note that there are quite a few preferred stocks. It makes sense, Painchaud said. "It's part of a very conservative investment view, and buying yield is a hedge," he said.

There are three miners, but Painchaud points out they are not defensive gold plays as you might think. "They were producing silver. It very well could have been the world was stockpiling silver for munitions for the coming war," he said.

So what about now? There was no technology-laden Nasdaq index in 1929, and Painchaud notes the biggest tech company of the time, RCA, didn't make his list. But I wondered if — as the 1920s clearly still showed the strains of America's move to an industrialized nation from a more agrarian one — could we compare that era to our transition to the high-tech era (using the 1980s lexicon)? Could tech names be the equivalent of some of the industrial names on Painchaud's list?

He agreed with my theory, but added that the tech names that are most basic may be the ones that recover first. If you use the lesson of 1929, he says you would conclude semiconductors might be on the list. That also correlates with something else he's seeing in his research: "In terms of insider activity, the semiconductors look like a buy as a group."

History doesn't always repeat itself. Your ETF wasn't there in the 1930s, and your broker wasn't putting his orders through on a computer... but some of the same psychology seems to be at work.

Painchaud's 1929-'31 list:
(divided by industry)

Construction Materials

U.S. Gypsum

Raybestos-Manhattan

Consumer Discretionary

Bulova Watch

Consumer Products - Tobacco

American Tobacco "B"

Ligget and Myers "B"

Electrical Transmission

American Superpower

Energy/Oil

Standard Oil Co. (NJ)

Entertainment

Columbia Pictures

Paramount Pictures

Loews

Food Processors

Archer-Daniels Midland

Coca-Cola

Corn Products Refining $7 prfd

International Salt

Libby, McNeill and Libby

Swift International

Industrial

American Machinery Foundry

Warren Foundry and Pipe

General Refractories

U.S. Steel

National Can

Vanadium Corp. of America

New Jersey Zinc

Novadel-Agene

Worthington Pump

Superheater

Continental Diamond Fibre

Machine Tools

Bullard Co.

Manufacturing

Foster Wheeler

Thatcher Manufacturing

Ingersoll-Rand

Deere and Co.

American Chain and Cable

Mining

Lake Shore Mines

Dome Mines

Homestake Mining

Conglomerate

Atlantic Gulf and Western Industries Pfd.

Electrical Wiring

Driver-Harris

Restaurants

Exchange Buffet

Office Equipment

Addressograph-Multigraph

Oil Field Equipment

Dresser Industries

Pharmaceuticals

Sharp and Dohme

Publishing

Curtis Publishing $7 pfd

Real Estate

Equitable Office Building

Texas Pacific Land Trust

Retail

Federated Department Stores

Transportation RR

Missouri-Kansas-Texas

Missouri-Kansas-Texas pfd

N.Y. Chicago and St. Louis pfd

Utilities

Electric Power and Light

American and Foreign Power $7 pfd

American Power and Light $5 pfd

Electric Power and Light $7 pfd

Questions? Comments? marketinsider@cnbc.com