We need to see Scott Boras' math. He has told ESPN.com and the New York Post that his potentially free agent client Alex Rodriguez is worth more than $30 million a year when you factor in what A-Rod could be worth to the Yankees regional sports network, YES.
The number he specifically uttered, according to ESPN Radio's Andrew Marchand, is at least $500 million of worth over the next 10 years.
Fifty million dollars a year? I can't possibly believe A-Rod would be worth that much to YES. So I emailed Vince Gennaro, one of the best number guys in the business and author of "Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball."
Here's what Vince fired back. Check out the lines in bold, it's pretty funny.
"A player of A-Rod's stature can have an impact on the value of a team's regional sports network. However, Boras' assertion that he contributes $50 million per year is completely unreasonable. For that to be true, the primary programming would need to be a nightly three-hour talk show hosted by A-Rod and it would need to secure the same 4.7 ratings point on YES that the average Yankee game telecast scored in 2007. More realistically if the Yankees went forward without A-Rod, it's reasonable to expect the team would suffer in terms of wins and losses. Losing seven or eight wins could cost the Yankees nearly a full ratings point, which translates into about $12 million per year in YES revenue. If you add A-Rod's marquee value (same as Boras' 'iconic value'), that could impact the value of the YES Network as an asset to the tune of about another $10 million per year. Keep in mind the Yankees own 36% of YES, so the impact on the Yankees (and therefore the portion of A-Rod's YES Network impact for which they should be willing pay) is about $8 million per year (36% of the total YES impact of $22 million)."
Hey, maybe Boras can still get that $30 million if he uses the $8 million number and says the Yankees haven't accounted for his impact before. But to me, using the $50 million number (and remember that was at least) without having the math out there hurts his credibility. I guess my job now is to go find that math and see just how fuzzy it is.
News & Notes
The Chronicle of Higher Education is reporting that the NCAA has a proposal on the table that would allow schools to use their popular athletes more. I think it should happen in exchange for those athletes getting their rightful share in jersey royalties.
Adidas CEO Herbert Hainer told a German newspaper that the company's Reebok brand won't do any business with Foot Locker until they offer "a decent selection" of Reebok shoes. I think that's a really bad move. From what I've seen, Adidas has killed the Reebok brand since the day it was acquired and the reason Foot Locker doesn't want to carry much is the sad reality that there's not much that Reebok offers that is decent. Adidas should take what they can get for now.
Ever since I fell in love with the story of the Boston Marathon cheater Rosie Ruiz, I've always been fascinated with the people who cheat at road races. The latest? Former Mexican presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo, who "ran" a 2:41:12 marathon to win the 55-age bracket in Berlin last week. Luckily, he was caught and when authorities checked the times, his chip times apparently had him running two minute miles.
Questions? Comments? SportsBiz@cnbc.com
