August 2009. Terrorists shut down the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan crude pipeline, cutting one million barrels a day. Across the globe, the U.S. threatens Iran with sanctions after an international nuclear watchdog finds a secret uranium enrichment plant. Tehran, joined by Venezuela, responds by axing output by a total of 700,000 barrels a day. Crude prices top $166 and gasoline prices spike over $5.50 a gallon. 

Rick Bowmer / AP

Such a cataclysmic scenario sounds like the stuff of Tom Clancy thrillers. It's not. It’s part of an enactment by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE), a non-partisan group of Fortune-500 chief executives and retired military staff, aimed at waking up policymakers to what President George W. Bush described as America’s addiction to oil. SAFE clearly feel the penny hasn't dropped yet.

A retired military commander and a former Secretary of State played leading roles in the nightmare scenario simulation. The aim was to starkly underscore U.S. dependency on imported oil, particularly from unstable parts of the world, and promote legislation encouraging more energy independence.

"This scenario could happen tomorrow, and we have to talk about dealing with the consequences," said retired Army General John Abizaid, former top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, who played the part of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

"It may be that it takes a crisis to bring this to the forefront of the political debate," added Richard Armitage, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, who played the Secretary of State in the scenario. 

Whether agit-prop or timely wake-up call, the timing of such couldn’t be more critical. At the time of writing, oil prices have pulled back slightly after breaching $96 a barrel, the highest since oil futures started trading in New York back in 1983. Next stop $100?

That’s the talk dominating the market. And the key question is not if, but when, we get there.

Oil is up almost 60 percent from a year ago and it’s jumped 19 percent in the past month. Given the blistering pace of oil’s appreciation, market watchers are not ruling out a triple-digit oil price by the end of the year, if not earlier.

Speaking to CNBC when oil crossed $86 a barrel back in mid-October, Mark L. Waggoner of Excel Futures, correctly predicted oil would march to $90 and would have enough momentum to reach $100. "We need to see a failure of the market very quickly or these new highs will most certainly hit $90 to $100 on follow-through buying."

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