- 4 Thanksgiving Week Buys For Your Portfolio: Market Pros
- There's a 'Great Chance' For a Double-Dip Recession: Strategist
- Revenge of the Gangsta Nerds
- Will TCU See The "Flutie Effect?"
- Retail Earnings and Sales to Improve in Q4: Analyst
- Consumers Catching the Holiday Spirit
- It's Beginning To Look A Lot More Riskless
- Crescenzi: Claims Level Suggests End to Job Losses
- Hedge Funds Take Early Lead in Warren Buffett's 'Big Bet'
- Fannie Mae to Tighten Lending Standards: Report
- Share Trading on London Stock Exchange Resumes
- China Overcapacity Worsening, EU Chamber Warns
- Investing in Good Karma – and Making a Profit
- UK Retail Sales Pick Up in Nov., Strong Dec. Seen
- Black Friday to Avoid Red Ink; Greenback Gets the Blues
- Wal-Mart Price Pressure Hurts China Workers: Report
- Bankruptcies Jump, Hitting Highest Level in Four Years
- Steepest Black Friday Discounts, Revealed
MOST SHARED
- The Executive Job Search
- Chinese Overcapacity is Worsening, EU Chamber Warns
- Salvation Army's Kettles Now Credit Card-Ready
- US Mint to Suspend American Eagle Gold 1-Ounce Coins
- Gold Retreats from New High Above $1,194
- Wal-Mart Price Pressure Hurts China Workers: Report
- Oil Friday
- Hyundai-Kia Targets Rapid China Growth in 2010
- China Unveils Carbon Target Ahead of Copenhagen

![]() |
AP |
Last week, militants executed coordinated attacks on a hotel and two police stations in Port Harcourt, killing at least 13 people in the oil-rich part of the nation. That helped spark oil’s rise to $100/barrel. But today, despite attacks on these ships, oil prices have fallen under $94.
Has the market grown weary of these attacks?
Many traders that I talk to say--yes. They point out that while MEND’s threats of “imminent” attacks continue, it hasn’t resulted in significant supply disruption in the several months. Militant attacks have cut into oil production in Nigeria, which is the top exporter of crude in Africa and the fifth biggest supplier of crude to the U.S., pushing it down 20 percent, since attacks began in February 2006. But most of the major supply disruptions occurred many months ago.
The reality today is that we likely will see growing instability in the Niger delta and more attacks until at least early February. However, Sebastian Spio-Garbah, an energy analyst, who specializes in the Middle East and Africa for Eurasia Group says:
"Unless the 2007 presidential election is annulled (there’s a 40 percent chance that’ll happen) and a new election is ordered, by the second quarter the situation should calm considerably."
“Apart from ‘headline risk’ and a few tens of thousands of barrels of oil offline, I don’t expect massive - 400,000 to 600,000 barrels per day-type shutoffs - as happened in 2006 and 2007,” “Once we are out of the first quarter, there is a real positive prospect of a Comprehensive Niger Delta Peace Agreement, which will gradually help to restore stability.”
In fact, Eurasia Group estimates Nigeria’s 2008 crude production will surpass the current OPEC quota of 2.2 million barrels a day.
Plus, Spio-Garbah says growing LNG exports, thanks to Gazprom’s interest and potential $2 billion investment, should aid in Nigeria’s march to become the world’s 3rd largest LNG exported by 2010.
Questions? Comments? energysource@cnbc.com
- For nearly three decades, these on-call experts have been dishing advice on how to – and not to – cook turkey.
- Ever wished your cab driver would stop nattering and just get to where you're going? Well that moment is near(er).
- Eric Schmidt pledges to create a virtual copy of the Iraq National Museum at Google’s expense.
- Bill Griffeth is taking a leave of absence from CNBC and Power Lunch for a year. Here's a message from Bill.
- More shoppers than ever plan to comparison-shop this season. Who will benefit?
- It may be the most unusual guide to business you'll read.










