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Feb.04

9:10 AM ET

Monday, 4 Feb 2008

Super Bowl Market Stats - Big Blue and Big Scores

Posted By:Ariel Nelson

Topics:Nasdaq | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Sports | Stock Market

AP
As Darren Rovell pointed out, the market historically has outperformed when an original NFL team wins the Super Bowl and lags when an orginal AFL team wins. [Original NFL teams that switched to the AFC when the AFL and NFL merged include the Steelers, the Colts and the Browns.] We decided to look at the market's performance of AFL / NFL teams as well as the current AFC / NFC split. Either way you slice it you gotta say GO GIANTS!!!!!!!

Additionally, high scoring games (40+ points) also correspond to good market years while lower scoring games (39 points or less) coincide with weaker years. When the Giants and Patriots last played they had a combined score of 73 points! Could it be a good year after all?

Below are the avg annual returns for the Dow [.DJIA Loading... () ], S&P[.SPX Loading... () ], and Nasdaq[.NCOMP Loading... () ]for years that original AFL / NFL teams (Tampa Bay Bucs and Baltimore Raven expansion teams excluded) win the big game. Note NASDAQ data since 1972

39 Super Bowls with Original AFL / NFL teams
25 NFL wins
14 AFL wins
Avg annual returns when NFL wins
Dow up 14.7%
S&P up 13.7%
Nasdaq up 14.7%
Avg annual returns when AFL wins
Dow down -2.8%
S&P down -0.4%
Nasdaq up 7.7%

Using the current AFC / NFC delineations, you get the following:

41 Super bowls to date
21 NFC wins
20 AFC wins
Avg annual returns when NFC wins
Dow up 14.3%
S&P up 13.8%
Nasdaq up 15.6%
Avg annual returns when AFC wins
Dow up 2.0%
S&P up 3.0%
Nasdaq up 8.6%

Looking at High (40+) and Low scoring games:

41 Super bowls to date
26 games with 40 or more total points
15 games with 39 or fewer points
Avg annual returns when total points scored are 40+
Dow up 11.1%
S&P up 11.8%
Nasdaq up 17.2%
Avg annual returns total points scored are less than 40
Dow up 3.4%
S&P up 2.9%
Nasdaq up 2.6%
Note - avgs when the NFC wins a low scoring game
Dow up 10.5%
S&P up 12.1%
Nasdaq up 13.3%

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