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Trading GOP Futures on FL Primary

Tuesday, 29 Jan 2008 | 2:01 PM ET

Florida Primary a Tight Race Between McCain and Romney: The Intrade market (www.intrade.com) is predicting that McCain has a 58% probability of winning Florida and that Romney has a 47% probability of winning, and both are showing positive momentum on the day, according to the Intrade market. Polls are also showing that McCain and Romney are neck and neck in the Florida primary.

  • GIULIANI.FL is at a 2% probability he will win the Florida primary, down from a high of an 80% probability according to the Intrade market.
  • GIULIANI08 contract for the GOP nod is showing a 5.20% probability of Giuliani winning according to the Intrade market.
  • MCCAIN.FL is at 58% probability that he will win the Florida Primary on a strong rebound from a low of 0.1%.
  • MCCAIN08 contract for the GOP nod is showing a 59% probability of McCain winning according to the Intrade market.
  • ROMNEY.FL is at a 47% probability that he will win the Florida Primary also rebounding strongly from lows in December.
  • ROMNEY08 contract for the GOP nod is showing a 31% probability of Romney winning, according to the Intrade market.

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