Super Tuesday Political Futures
For the GOP, Intrade is showing Romney with the lead in CA
Here is how Intrade is predicting some of the other key primaries for tomorrow:
- New Jersey - Clinton has a 70% probability of winning New Jersey vs. Obama who has a 32.2% probability of winning, but Obama is showing the greater acceleration today in the Intrade market, up +10.2 while Clinton is down -7.5 today. McCain is showing a 92.5% probability that he will win the NJ Primary according to the Intrade markets, on a strong rebound from the contract low of 4.0%.
- New York - Clinton is showing a 92% probability that she will win the NY Primary, in her home state, up 3 on the day. McCain is showing a 96% probability that he will win NY according to the Intrade markets
- Connecticut - Obama is showing a 69% probability that he will win the CT Primary, up 11 on the day. McCain is showing a 94% probability that he will win CT.
- Illinois - Obama leads in his home state with a 95% probability of victory. McCain also has a 95% chance of victory.
- Georgia - Obama is showing a 91% probability of victory in GA. John McCain surged in Georgia today, up 18.9 to a 79.9% probability
- Massachusetts - Romney holds a clear lead in MA with a 94% probability of victory. With Ted Kennedy's recent endorsement, Obama leads with a 50% chance of victory.
- Pennsylvania - Clinton leads in PA with a 65% probability while McCain has an 85% chance to win the Keystone State.