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Super Tuesday Political Futures

As we move to Super Tuesday, the Intrade market (www.intrade.com) is predicting that McCain is starting to pull away in the GOP race while Clinton and Obama are still neck-and-neck. McCain is the clear front runner for the GOP nomination with an 87.20% probability of receiving the nod vs. a 9.1% probability for Romney.

On the Democratic Party's side, the race between Clinton and Obama is still incredibly tight with a 53.4% probability of Clinton receiving the Democratic nod, according to Intrade, and Obama has a 46.8% probability of winning, showing positive momentum up 7.1 on the day.

On the Democratic Party's side, the race between Clinton and Obama is still incredibly tight with a 53.4% probability of Clinton receiving the Democratic nod, according to Intrade, and Obama has a 46.8% probability of winning, showing positive momentum up 7.1 on the day.

The Democratic Primary in California is neck and neck with the latest Rasmussen Reports survey showing Obama with a "statistically insignificant" one-point lead over Clinton who had held a three-point lead earlier in the week (www.rasmussenreports.com). The Intrade markets show the reversal with Clinton showing a 46.50% probability of winning the California primary, down 11.5 points today, and Obama is at a 53.40% probability of winning California, up 11.40 today.

The Democratic Primary in California is neck and neck with the latest Rasmussen Reports survey showing Obama with a "statistically insignificant" one-point lead over Clinton who had held a three-point lead earlier in the week (www.rasmussenreports.com). The Intrade markets show the reversal with Clinton showing a 46.50% probability of winning the California primary, down 11.5 points today, and Obama is at a 53.40% probability of winning California, up 11.40 today.

For the GOP, Intrade is showing Romney with the lead in CA

Here is how Intrade is predicting some of the other key primaries for tomorrow:

  • New Jersey - Clinton has a 70% probability of winning New Jersey vs. Obama who has a 32.2% probability of winning, but Obama is showing the greater acceleration today in the Intrade market, up +10.2 while Clinton is down -7.5 today. McCain is showing a 92.5% probability that he will win the NJ Primary according to the Intrade markets, on a strong rebound from the contract low of 4.0%.
  • New York - Clinton is showing a 92% probability that she will win the NY Primary, in her home state, up 3 on the day. McCain is showing a 96% probability that he will win NY according to the Intrade markets
  • Connecticut - Obama is showing a 69% probability that he will win the CT Primary, up 11 on the day. McCain is showing a 94% probability that he will win CT.
  • Illinois - Obama leads in his home state with a 95% probability of victory. McCain also has a 95% chance of victory.
  • Georgia - Obama is showing a 91% probability of victory in GA. John McCain surged in Georgia today, up 18.9 to a 79.9% probability
  • Massachusetts - Romney holds a clear lead in MA with a 94% probability of victory. With Ted Kennedy's recent endorsement, Obama leads with a 50% chance of victory.
  • Pennsylvania - Clinton leads in PA with a 65% probability while McCain has an 85% chance to win the Keystone State.

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