Oil Investors Get Win In First Quarter, But What About Q2?
CNBC energy producer Judy Gee contributed to this post.
Investors who put their money in oil in the first quarter ended up putting their money in a winning asset class. It was certainly a good move considering--before today--oil futures were up 10 percent, while the broader S&P was down by that same amount. Even after today's remarkable $4 plunge,prices have posted a gain of nearly 6 percent this quarter.
So as the first quarter draws to a close, what can we expect for the second quarter?
Perhaps, the end of the energy bull run? Goldman Sachs today notes that U.S. oil demand is currently under pressure and will continue to remain under strain for the next quarter. Weakening spreads and fund liquidation is expected to drive prices closer to the low $90s range. The forecast comes on the heels of a Commitment of Traders Report indicating net long positions declined 38 percent last week, after falling 24 percent in the week before.
And while Stephen Schork of The Schork Report notes that there is now "no doubt there is indeed a speculative bubble in commodities...before anyone tries to burst the bull's bubble," it would be wise to wait and see if bears could challenge support levels between $98-$101. He says the selloff today is certainly a material correction and prices are still within technical support levels.
He's not ready to call an end to the bull run just yet and warns that "today's bears may wind up being tomorrow's April fools."
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