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It's the last day of the month and no one wants to be a hero.
With that said, the Street is struggling to find a narrative -- it's not clear where we are, so instead of broad narratives I am getting a lot of little (and somewhat timid) stories.
Here are a few observations:
1) a lot of traders are long credit cards, but this is a CROWDED long;
2) energy and materials are tough shorts: a lot of traders want to short 'em, but many got burned at the end of April doing this;
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3) brokers: buy when oversold, for a trade is the usual mantra, but quarter ends today for Lehman [LEH
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], Goldman [GS
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], and Morgan Stanley [MS
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]. Lehman is the key here. If traders like what they hear on losses and capital preservation, as well as a broad vision of where they want to go, brokers could lead the financials higher.
4) some tech leadership is forming: stocks like EMC [EMC
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], Apple [AAPL
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], and Research in Motion [RIMM
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] had a good month
5) retail: everyone is just staying negative on consumers until proven wrong. J. Crew's [JCG
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] poor guidance does not bode well for May sales
6) fundamental on coal and metals still very strong: look at Joy Global [JOYG
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] , a mining machine maker, new highs today on positive comments. Fertilizers remain strong but many believe if oil comes in so will they.
7) macro outlook is cloudy: there are sizeable cash positions that need to be invested when the fear of a nasty recession ebbs, as does credit fears.
For the month: S&P up 1.2 percent, Dow down 1.2 percent (thanks to terrible performances from GM and the financials) -- this is the first time the Dow and S&P have diverged since June of 2006. Nasdaq up 4.8 percent.
Questions? Comments?
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