Current Housing Indicators |
| CURRENT | PREVIOUS | ||
| Existing Home Sales | 4.49m | ▼ | 4.74m |
| New Home Sales | 309,000 | ▼ | 344,000 |
| Housing Starts | 583,000 | ▲ | 477,000 |
| Building Permits | 547,000 | ▲ | 531,000 |
| HMI | 9 | UNCH | 9 |
| Existing Home Prices | $170,300 | ▼ (annually) | $199,800 |
| New Home Prices | $201,100 | ▼ (annually) | $232,400 |
More Videos
- Watch Foreclosures, Seriously
- Home Buyer Tax Credit Expansion Heads to Obama
- Congratulations America, We're All Landlords Now
- Wells Fargo Bets on Housing Recovery
- Home Buyer Tax Credit Done: Does it Matter?
- Better Times for Mortgage Banking
- 'Beleaguered Big Builders' Sitting On Piles of Cash
- Home Buyer Tax Credit: Final Deal?
- A Compromise on Home Buyer Tax Credit?
- Mortgage Bankers Can't Afford Their Own Home
- Tamminen: Why Does Oklahoma Want To Drown New York?
- Food Network, HGTV Drive Scripps Networks' Upside Surprise
- Tommy Lee, Medical Tourism and Nasty Santa, Your Emails
- U.S. Markets Gain 3% for the Week Despite 10.2% Unemployment
- Disney's 'Carol' Tests Widest 3-D Release Ever
- Stimulus II? Jobs Tax Credit=Cash For Clunkers
- Rockwell Automation Earnings: What Options Are Saying
- Gold Will Touch Higher Lows and Higher Highs: Analyst
- Is Misery Alive And Well in Your Office?
- GE, Comcast Agree on NBC Universal Valuation: Report
- BoA Board in Civil War Over Lewis' Succesor
- For the Jobless, 10% is Harder Than Before
- Week Ahead: Stocks Search for Catalyst in Quiet Week
- Outlook: Dollar to Ride Higher on Bleak Jobs Report
- Geithner: More Stimulus, Not a Bank Tax
- Windfall is Seen as Bank Bonuses are Paid in Stock
- Volatility Returns: Sign of the Bull Losing Muscle?
- Cramer: Earnings, IPOs Dominate Next Week
RSS FEED
Realty Check
Text Size 
I want first to give a shout-out to Debi Averett, the brains behind HousingDoom.com, for sending me this very significant insight into yesterday’s numbers from the National Association of Realtors. And a chart! Love charts (see below).
The chart has two metrics, one on each side, because the NAR measures existing home sales (based on closings) in real numbers but measures pending home sales (contracts signed, not closings) as an index. The comparison, while not totally scientific, shows the trend pretty clearly.
Back in 2006 the Pending Home Sales Index tracked closely with the real Existing Home Sales numbers, showing that contracts signed did in fact jibe with real closed sales. But come summer of last year (and the start of the credit crisis), you can see those lines diverge, and they’re still going. What’s the reason? Could be that folks signing contracts are just not getting the financing or they’re canceling for other reasons. In any case, not all contracts signed are turning into closings, and the trend in April shows the divergence increasing.
I think that’s important to note in this dicey housing market, where every number is broadcast everywhere as an indicator of when the housing market will bottom, or when it won’t. Everyone got all excited yesterday that the Pending Home Sales Index rose 6.3% month to month.
I would caution that this chart shows all those contracts signed may not result in actual closed sales. I also think it’s very important to note that year-over-year numbers are far more indicative of where we are in the market. I’m all for incremental improvements, but let’s not let one number carry us away from reality.
 |
Questions? Comments?
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes