Crude oil production from non-OPEC countries will not be able to keep up with growing global demand in the next few years, forcing oil consuming nations to rely more on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries for supplies, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.
In its long-term energy forecast, the EIA lowered its estimate of non-OPEC oil production in 2010 by 1.1 million barrels per day from last year's forecast to 51.8 million bpd. For the same period, OPEC oil output was cut by just 400,000 bpd to 37.4 million bpd.
OPEC member countries are expected to invest in incremental production capacity so their conventional oil output accounts for about 43 percent of total global production through 2030, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, world oil demand in 2010 will be 1.5 million bpd less than previously thought at 89.2 million bpd. China will account for almost half the lower oil consumption, with the country's oil use cut 600,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. The EIA said its forecast for India's oil demand in 2010 was unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.
The EIA is the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.